Circle the Wagons!
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 11 (6 on the archive and 5 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Ethiopian): 2
Defender wins (Italian/Eritrean): 8
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 983 | 1110 | 32% | 2025-12-06 | Lost |
| 993 | 968 | 54% | 2023-09-24 | Lost |
| 948 | 968 | 47% | 2023-07-21 | Lost |
| 1017 | 997 | 53% | 2022-05-28 | Tied |
| 968 | 1089 | 33% | 2022-05-19 | Lost |
| 967 | 1019 | 43% | 2022-04-16 | Lost |
Attacking (0 wins) average ELOs: 979.3 vs 1025.2 has a 43.44% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).