Loosening the Noose
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 31 (10 on the archive and 21 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (French): 17
Defender wins (German): 14
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 970 | 1016 | 43% | 2025-12-22 | Lost |
| 989 | 1020 | 46% | 2025-03-18 | Won |
| 1072 | 1039 | 55% | 2025-03-05 | Won |
| 1180 | 1256 | 39% | 2024-09-01 | Lost |
| 1012 | 1263 | 19% | 2023-10-14 | Lost |
| 1079 | 919 | 72% | 2023-07-06 | Won |
| 850 | 1041 | 25% | 2022-10-22 | Lost |
| 1081 | 969 | 66% | 2022-08-27 | Won |
| 1157 | 1253 | 37% | 2022-07-06 | Lost |
| 982 | 780 | 76% | 2022-03-25 | Won |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1037.2 vs 1055.6 has a 47.35% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).