Red Tears Shed on Gray
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 95 (22 on the archive and 73 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Romanian): 51
Defender wins (Russian): 44
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 918 | 962 | 44% | 2025-07-25 | Won |
| 1068 | 1137 | 40% | 2025-07-25 | Won |
| 1059 | 1251 | 25% | 2025-07-25 | Won |
| 897 | 1000 | 36% | 2025-01-26 | Won |
| 843 | 1137 | 16% | 2024-11-16 | Lost |
| 1000 | 995 | 51% | 2024-02-09 | Won |
| 844 | 982 | 31% | 2024-01-03 | Won |
| 1034 | 851 | 74% | 2023-08-23 | Won |
| 1028 | 1051 | 47% | 2022-02-06 | Won |
| 1105 | 892 | 77% | 2020-08-29 | Won |
| 891 | 1040 | 30% | 2020-03-11 | Lost |
| 1126 | 1180 | 42% | 2018-10-05 | Won |
| 915 | 910 | 51% | 2018-08-18 | Lost |
| 1072 | 897 | 73% | 2018-04-27 | Won |
| 975 | 1058 | 38% | 2018-03-08 | Lost |
| 1066 | 1354 | 16% | 2018-03-07 | Lost |
| 977 | 985 | 49% | 2018-02-10 | Lost |
| 1090 | 958 | 68% | 2018-02-10 | Won |
| 956 | 1021 | 41% | 2018-01-16 | Lost |
| 1223 | 1204 | 53% | 2018-01-06 | Won |
| 1088 | 1123 | 45% | 2017-12-27 | Lost |
| 1118 | 997 | 67% | 2017-10-23 | Lost |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1013.3 vs 1044.8 has a 45.49% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).