On To Florence
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 15
Attacker wins (New Zealand): 12
Defender wins (German): 1
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (New Zealand): 0
Defender wins (German): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 940 | 940 | 50% | 2025-10-27 | Lost |
| 954 | 954 | 50% | 2025-07-13 | Won |
| 1009 | 903 | 65% | 2008-12-11 | Won |
| 1080 | 1202 | 33% | 2007-02-22 | Won |
| 1204 | 1151 | 58% | 2006-11-28 | Won |
| 1025 | 1020 | 51% | 2006-09-20 | Won |
| 1132 | 1035 | 64% | 2006-01-01 | Won |
| 1154 | 1109 | 56% | 2005-06-11 | Lost |
| 1147 | 1100 | 57% | 2005-05-01 | Won |
| 995 | 1213 | 22% | 2005-04-28 | Won |
| 1068 | 980 | 62% | 2005-04-25 | Tied |
| 1038 | 1035 | 50% | 2005-04-22 | Won |
| 1003 | 1070 | 40% | 2005-03-01 | Won |
| 1095 | 1100 | 49% | 2005-02-16 | Won |
| 1090 | 1117 | 46% | | Won |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1062.3 vs 1061.9 has a 50.05% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).