On To Florence
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 87 (16 on the archive and 72 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (New Zealand): 65
Defender wins (German): 21
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (New Zealand): 0
Defender wins (German): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 940 | 59% | 2025-10-27 | D | Lost |
| 905 | 1000 | 37% | 2025-07-13 | | Won |
| 1012 | 905 | 65% | 2008-12-11 | | Won |
| 1080 | 1000 | 61% | 2007-02-22 | | Won |
| 1159 | 1159 | 50% | 2006-11-28 | | Won |
| 1034 | 1000 | 55% | 2006-09-20 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1035 | 45% | 2006-01-01 | | Won |
| 1343 | 1002 | 88% | 2005-06-25 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1037 | 45% | 2005-06-11 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1101 | 36% | 2005-05-01 | | Won |
| 1004 | 1214 | 23% | 2005-04-28 | | Won |
| 1074 | 980 | 63% | 2005-04-25 | | Tied |
| 1031 | 1000 | 54% | 2005-04-22 | | Won |
| 1056 | 1087 | 46% | 2005-03-01 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1101 | 36% | 2005-02-16 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1086 | 38% | | | Won |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1043.6 vs 1040.4 has a 50.46% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).