A Surprise Encounter
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 133 (18 on the archive and 115 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Finnish): 58
Defender wins (Russian): 74
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Finnish): 0
Defender wins (Russian): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1085 | 1077 | 51% | 2024-11-02 | Won |
| 1052 | 991 | 59% | 2023-09-29 | Lost |
| 980 | 948 | 55% | 2023-04-15 | Lost |
| 859 | 1081 | 22% | 2023-02-28 | Lost |
| 1117 | 1031 | 62% | 2020-06-29 | Won |
| 1027 | 945 | 62% | 2019-07-05 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2016-03-22 | Lost |
| 972 | 980 | 49% | 2011-04-10 | Lost |
| 890 | 1140 | 19% | 2007-09-20 | Lost |
| 1103 | 1036 | 60% | 2007-05-28 | Lost |
| 1271 | 1283 | 48% | 2004-07-22 | Lost |
| 962 | 1055 | 37% | 2003-08-16 | Won |
| 1173 | 1303 | 32% | 2003-01-09 | Lost |
| 1036 | 982 | 58% | 2003-01-06 | Lost |
| 1223 | 1204 | 53% | 1999-07-29 | Lost |
| 1173 | 1169 | 51% | 1997-01-22 | Lost |
| 1039 | 1039 | 50% | 1996-12-18 | Won |
| 1068 | 1027 | 56% | 1988-01-01 | Lost |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1062.1 vs 1076.6 has a 47.91% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).