A Surprise Encounter
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 128 (14 on the archive and 114 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Finnish): 57
Defender wins (Russian): 70
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Finnish): 0
Defender wins (Russian): 1
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1131 | 1159 | 46% | 2024-11-02 | Won |
| 1025 | 1008 | 52% | 2023-09-29 | Lost |
| 1014 | 956 | 58% | 2023-04-15 | Lost |
| 941 | 1011 | 40% | 2023-02-28 | Lost |
| 982 | 1014 | 45% | 2020-06-29 | Won |
| 1026 | 1015 | 52% | 2019-07-05 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2016-03-22 | Lost |
| 972 | 1014 | 44% | 2011-04-10 | Lost |
| 1093 | 1030 | 59% | 2007-05-28 | Lost |
| 939 | 1055 | 34% | 2003-08-16 | Won |
| 1119 | 1275 | 29% | 2003-01-09 | Lost |
| 1030 | 959 | 60% | 2003-01-06 | Lost |
| 1119 | 1074 | 56% | 1997-01-22 | Lost |
| 1067 | 1069 | 50% | 1988-01-01 | Lost |
Attacking (4 wins) average ELOs: 1039 vs 1051.9 has a 48.14% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).