A Surprise Encounter
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 129 (15 on the archive and 114 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Finnish): 57
Defender wins (Russian): 71
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Finnish): 0
Defender wins (Russian): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1121 | 1116 | 51% | 2024-11-02 | Won |
| 1022 | 1021 | 50% | 2023-09-29 | Lost |
| 977 | 943 | 55% | 2023-04-15 | Lost |
| 889 | 1014 | 33% | 2023-02-28 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1014 | 56% | 2020-06-29 | Won |
| 1026 | 1017 | 51% | 2019-07-05 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2016-03-22 | Lost |
| 973 | 977 | 49% | 2011-04-10 | Lost |
| 1092 | 1029 | 59% | 2007-05-28 | Lost |
| 929 | 1055 | 33% | 2003-08-16 | Won |
| 1122 | 1254 | 32% | 2003-01-09 | Lost |
| 1029 | 959 | 60% | 2003-01-06 | Lost |
| 1121 | 1241 | 33% | 1999-07-29 | Lost |
| 1122 | 1142 | 47% | 1997-01-22 | Lost |
| 1069 | 1041 | 54% | 1988-01-01 | Lost |
Attacking (4 wins) average ELOs: 1042.5 vs 1060.7 has a 47.38% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).