Independence Day
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 35 (13 on the archive and 22 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Czechoslovakian): 14
Defender wins (German): 21
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1170 | 1000 | 73% | 2026-06-26 | | Won |
| 1174 | 959 | 78% | 2026-06-25 | | Lost |
| 1219 | 1171 | 57% | 2026-05-28 | | Won |
| 977 | 1000 | 47% | 2026-05-23 | | Lost |
| 977 | 1000 | 47% | 2026-05-22 | | Lost |
| 1088 | 966 | 67% | 2026-05-01 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1011 | 48% | 2026-04-30 | | Won |
| 1012 | 1000 | 52% | 2026-03-28 | | Lost |
| 998 | 971 | 54% | 2026-03-01 | | Won |
| 904 | 1159 | 19% | 2026-02-28 | | Lost |
| 966 | 1045 | 39% | 2026-01-14 | | Lost |
| 1201 | 1186 | 52% | 2025-12-16 | | Won |
| 1086 | 1022 | 59% | 2025-10-09 | | Lost |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1059.4 vs 1037.7 has a 53.12% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).