Autumn Approach
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 52 (13 on the archive and 39 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (British): 18
Defender wins (German): 34
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1085 | 1068 | 52% | 2025-08-24 | Won |
| 891 | 869 | 53% | 2024-04-02 | Lost |
| 1038 | 1123 | 38% | 2023-07-28 | Lost |
| 911 | 1084 | 27% | 2023-02-05 | Lost |
| 1043 | 1021 | 53% | 2022-10-26 | Won |
| 941 | 960 | 47% | 2022-09-21 | Lost |
| 1112 | 1279 | 28% | 2022-02-18 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1173 | 34% | 2022-01-02 | Won |
| 1037 | 1047 | 49% | 2021-12-03 | Lost |
| 1011 | 1000 | 52% | 2021-11-17 | Lost |
| 1075 | 1066 | 51% | 2021-10-01 | Lost |
| 1190 | 904 | 84% | 2021-05-11 | Won |
| 1194 | 968 | 79% | 2021-05-10 | Won |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1044.9 vs 1043.2 has a 50.24% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).