Autumn Approach
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 47 (12 on the archive and 35 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (British): 15
Defender wins (German): 32
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 891 | 900 | 49% | 2024-04-02 | Lost |
| 1026 | 1156 | 32% | 2023-07-28 | Lost |
| 890 | 1092 | 24% | 2023-02-05 | Lost |
| 950 | 1084 | 32% | 2022-10-26 | Won |
| 847 | 960 | 34% | 2022-09-21 | Lost |
| 1100 | 1266 | 28% | 2022-02-18 | Lost |
| 1038 | 1173 | 31% | 2022-01-02 | Won |
| 1055 | 1047 | 51% | 2021-12-03 | Lost |
| 995 | 970 | 54% | 2021-11-17 | Lost |
| 1075 | 1065 | 51% | 2021-10-01 | Lost |
| 1162 | 913 | 81% | 2021-05-11 | Won |
| 1218 | 968 | 81% | 2021-05-10 | Won |
Attacking (4 wins) average ELOs: 1020.6 vs 1049.5 has a 45.85% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).