The Grist Mill
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 80 (20 on the archive and 60 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (North Korean): 38
Defender wins (American): 42
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1055 | 1002 | 58% | 2025-01-24 | Won |
| 1342 | 1198 | 70% | 2024-10-08 | Lost |
| 1095 | 1136 | 44% | 2024-03-02 | Won |
| 1243 | 980 | 82% | 2023-05-06 | Lost |
| 1256 | 756 | 95% | 2020-06-02 | Won |
| 1092 | 1103 | 48% | 2020-03-12 | Won |
| 1005 | 996 | 51% | 2019-07-13 | Lost |
| 1148 | 1038 | 65% | 2019-05-30 | Lost |
| 1058 | 975 | 62% | 2019-01-08 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2018-11-11 | Won |
| 1176 | 1041 | 69% | 2018-10-06 | Won |
| 1116 | 970 | 70% | 2018-08-22 | Won |
| 951 | 1180 | 21% | 2018-06-30 | Lost |
| 1007 | 864 | 69% | 2018-04-29 | Lost |
| 1139 | 1012 | 68% | 2018-04-29 | Lost |
| 826 | 1058 | 21% | 2018-03-28 | Lost |
| 991 | 1123 | 32% | 2018-03-24 | Won |
| 933 | 1078 | 30% | 2018-02-24 | Lost |
| 1058 | 941 | 66% | 2018-01-12 | Lost |
| 1026 | 947 | 61% | 2018-01-12 | Lost |
Attacking (9 wins) average ELOs: 1080.3 vs 1024.3 has a 57.98% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).