The Haunted Castle
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 108 (33 on the archive and 75 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian (NKVD)): 70
Defender wins (German): 38
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 872 | 979 | 35% | 2025-08-12 | | Won |
| 930 | 1011 | 39% | 2025-01-25 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1050 | 43% | 2023-06-22 | | Won |
| 1031 | 941 | 63% | 2022-03-20 | | Won |
| 1000 | 979 | 53% | 2021-08-17 | | Won |
| 1064 | 1000 | 59% | 2020-12-04 | | Won |
| 1172 | 1035 | 69% | 2020-10-10 | | Won |
| 1058 | 1000 | 58% | 2020-04-25 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1028 | 46% | 2020-04-14 | | Lost |
| 1059 | 750 | 86% | 2019-06-22 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1133 | 32% | 2019-06-02 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1216 | 22% | 2018-11-13 | | Lost |
| 1120 | 1022 | 64% | 2018-10-05 | | Won |
| 925 | 992 | 40% | 2018-09-14 | | Won |
| 1149 | 1000 | 70% | 2018-02-17 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1134 | 32% | 2017-10-15 | | Lost |
| 949 | 1059 | 35% | 2017-10-04 | | Lost |
| 898 | 893 | 51% | 2017-08-05 | | Won |
| 1014 | 1000 | 52% | 2017-08-05 | | Won |
| 1194 | 1185 | 51% | 2017-06-10 | | Won |
| 1219 | 941 | 83% | 2017-05-07 | | Won |
| 1242 | 1116 | 67% | 2017-04-22 | | Lost |
| 1049 | 1133 | 38% | 2017-04-07 | | Won |
| 1153 | 1000 | 71% | 2017-04-07 | | Won |
| 1142 | 1059 | 62% | 2017-03-19 | | Won |
| 1289 | 1000 | 84% | 2017-03-18 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1088 | 38% | 2017-03-12 | | Lost |
| 1012 | 1000 | 52% | 2017-03-05 | | Won |
| 940 | 1000 | 41% | 2017-02-28 | | Lost |
| 1016 | 908 | 65% | 2017-02-26 | | Lost |
| 1138 | 1131 | 51% | 2017-02-19 | | Won |
| 1051 | 1008 | 56% | 2017-02-12 | | Won |
| 1038 | 1029 | 51% | 2017-01-13 | | Won |
Attacking (23 wins) average ELOs: 1052.2 vs 1024.8 has a 53.93% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).