Ace in the Hole
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 38 (12 on the archive and 27 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 18
Defender wins (German): 20
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (American): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 971 | 1098 | 32% | 2026-04-08 | | Lost |
| 967 | 992 | 46% | 2026-03-18 | A | Won |
| 921 | 1103 | 26% | 2025-09-20 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1138 | 31% | 2024-06-15 | | Won |
| 692 | 990 | 15% | 2022-03-14 | | Lost |
| 1171 | 1040 | 68% | 2022-02-17 | | Won |
| 1131 | 1073 | 58% | 2022-01-15 | | Lost |
| 962 | 1134 | 27% | 2020-10-07 | | Lost |
| 1002 | 921 | 61% | 2020-04-16 | | Lost |
| 1134 | 986 | 70% | 2017-12-19 | | Won |
| 1147 | 1118 | 54% | 2017-04-28 | | Lost |
| 970 | 1147 | 27% | 2016-09-26 | | Lost |
Attacking (4 wins) average ELOs: 1005.7 vs 1061.7 has a 42.01% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).