The Commissar's Folly
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 30 (11 on the archive and 19 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 17
Defender wins (Polish): 13
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1215 | 1070 | 70% | 2023-10-02 | Lost |
| 1055 | 1019 | 55% | 2021-07-24 | Lost |
| 1235 | 1231 | 51% | 2021-01-20 | Lost |
| 902 | 986 | 38% | 2020-08-09 | Lost |
| 1123 | 986 | 69% | 2020-08-09 | Lost |
| 924 | 983 | 42% | 2020-04-05 | Lost |
| 930 | 964 | 45% | 2017-03-30 | Lost |
| 1051 | 968 | 62% | 2016-10-05 | Won |
| 1033 | 1051 | 47% | 2016-09-08 | Lost |
| 1022 | 964 | 58% | 2016-07-23 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1120 | 35% | 2016-03-06 | Won |
Attacking (2 wins) average ELOs: 1045.4 vs 1031.1 has a 52.05% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).