The Commissar's Folly
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 30 (11 on the archive and 19 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 6
Defender wins (Polish): 24
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1189 | 1003 | 74% | 2023-10-02 | Lost |
| 1054 | 1019 | 55% | 2021-07-24 | Lost |
| 1232 | 1310 | 39% | 2021-01-20 | Lost |
| 900 | 998 | 36% | 2020-08-09 | Lost |
| 1157 | 998 | 71% | 2020-08-09 | Lost |
| 924 | 983 | 42% | 2020-04-05 | Lost |
| 942 | 906 | 55% | 2017-03-30 | Lost |
| 1041 | 984 | 58% | 2016-10-05 | Won |
| 1032 | 1041 | 49% | 2016-09-08 | Lost |
| 1050 | 906 | 70% | 2016-07-23 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1110 | 36% | 2016-03-06 | Won |
Attacking (2 wins) average ELOs: 1048.2 vs 1023.5 has a 53.55% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).