The Commissar's Folly
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 31 (12 on the archive and 19 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 7
Defender wins (Polish): 24
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1096 | 908 | 75% | 2026-08-12 | | Won |
| 1192 | 1061 | 68% | 2023-10-02 | | Lost |
| 1055 | 1019 | 55% | 2021-07-24 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1219 | 22% | 2021-01-20 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 975 | 54% | 2020-08-09 | | Lost |
| 1123 | 975 | 70% | 2020-08-09 | | Lost |
| 924 | 1000 | 39% | 2020-04-05 | | Lost |
| 931 | 951 | 47% | 2017-03-30 | | Lost |
| 1098 | 959 | 69% | 2016-10-05 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1098 | 36% | 2016-09-08 | | Lost |
| 1009 | 951 | 58% | 2016-07-23 | | Lost |
| 1009 | 1120 | 35% | 2016-03-06 | | Won |
Attacking (3 wins) average ELOs: 1036.4 vs 1019.7 has a 52.41% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).