The Spearhead
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 25 (9 on the archive and 16 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Polish): 14
Defender wins (German): 11
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1198 | 1051 | 70% | 2024-12-06 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1024 | 47% | 2021-06-17 | Lost |
| 756 | 1256 | 5% | 2020-08-24 | Lost |
| 942 | 1217 | 17% | 2019-10-18 | Lost |
| 995 | 1116 | 33% | 2019-06-02 | Lost |
| 1126 | 1216 | 37% | 2018-05-20 | Lost |
| 1131 | 979 | 71% | 2016-06-27 | Lost |
| 1032 | 980 | 57% | 2016-06-11 | Lost |
| 878 | 998 | 33% | 2016-04-29 | Lost |
Attacking (0 wins) average ELOs: 1006.4 vs 1093 has a 37.8% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).