The Spearhead
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 25 (9 on the archive and 16 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Polish): 14
Defender wins (German): 11
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1102 | 1030 | 60% | 2024-12-06 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1063 | 41% | 2021-06-17 | Lost |
| 734 | 1184 | 7% | 2020-08-24 | Lost |
| 918 | 1217 | 15% | 2019-10-18 | Lost |
| 975 | 1123 | 30% | 2019-06-02 | Lost |
| 1126 | 1222 | 37% | 2018-05-20 | Lost |
| 1084 | 981 | 64% | 2016-06-27 | Lost |
| 1060 | 999 | 59% | 2016-06-11 | Lost |
| 965 | 1014 | 43% | 2016-04-29 | Lost |
Attacking (0 wins) average ELOs: 996 vs 1092.6 has a 36.45% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).