The Spearhead
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 25 (9 on the archive and 16 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Polish): 14
Defender wins (German): 11
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1177 | 1050 | 68% | 2024-12-06 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1029 | 46% | 2021-06-17 | Lost |
| 756 | 1281 | 5% | 2020-08-24 | Lost |
| 948 | 1216 | 18% | 2019-10-18 | Lost |
| 955 | 1158 | 24% | 2019-06-02 | Lost |
| 1126 | 1216 | 37% | 2018-05-20 | Lost |
| 1113 | 985 | 68% | 2016-06-27 | Lost |
| 1037 | 1014 | 53% | 2016-06-11 | Lost |
| 903 | 997 | 37% | 2016-04-29 | Lost |
Attacking (0 wins) average ELOs: 1001.7 vs 1105.1 has a 35.54% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).