Deadly Assumption
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 37 (12 on the archive and 25 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 17
Defender wins (American): 20
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 967 | 1273 | 15% | 2024-06-27 | Lost |
| 954 | 954 | 50% | 2023-03-05 | Lost |
| 1228 | 990 | 80% | 2023-03-02 | Won |
| 1011 | 1071 | 41% | 2023-02-03 | Lost |
| 1098 | 1090 | 51% | 2023-01-31 | Won |
| 801 | 866 | 41% | 2020-09-16 | Won |
| 996 | 960 | 55% | 2020-04-18 | Lost |
| 1242 | 1020 | 78% | 2018-05-04 | Won |
| 1182 | 970 | 77% | 2017-08-13 | Lost |
| 984 | 1088 | 35% | 2016-08-06 | Lost |
| 1088 | 968 | 67% | 2016-04-29 | Lost |
| 872 | 962 | 37% | 2016-04-29 | Won |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1035.3 vs 1017.7 has a 52.53% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).