Deadly Assumption
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 37 (12 on the archive and 25 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 18
Defender wins (American): 19
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1117 | 1276 | 29% | 2024-06-27 | Lost |
| 962 | 962 | 50% | 2023-03-05 | Lost |
| 1253 | 950 | 85% | 2023-03-02 | Won |
| 1066 | 1127 | 41% | 2023-02-03 | Lost |
| 982 | 982 | 50% | 2023-01-31 | Won |
| 919 | 865 | 58% | 2020-09-16 | Won |
| 1078 | 933 | 70% | 2020-04-18 | Lost |
| 1253 | 1420 | 28% | 2018-05-04 | Won |
| 1224 | 970 | 81% | 2017-08-13 | Lost |
| 1013 | 1058 | 44% | 2016-08-06 | Lost |
| 1058 | 969 | 63% | 2016-04-29 | Lost |
| 873 | 878 | 49% | 2016-04-29 | Won |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1066.5 vs 1032.5 has a 54.88% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).