To Ashes
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 63 (18 on the archive and 45 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 30
Defender wins (British): 33
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 984 | 52% | 2026-03-04 | | Won |
| 909 | 1000 | 37% | 2025-10-11 | | Lost |
| 1147 | 1077 | 60% | 2022-11-05 | | Won |
| 930 | 1059 | 32% | 2020-10-09 | | Lost |
| 1129 | 1151 | 47% | 2020-08-07 | | Won |
| 1042 | 1129 | 38% | 2020-08-02 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1213 | 23% | 2018-04-21 | | Lost |
| 1145 | 1271 | 33% | 2018-03-24 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1185 | 26% | 2017-12-05 | | Won |
| 942 | 1000 | 42% | 2016-03-27 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1079 | 39% | 2015-10-06 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1158 | 29% | 2015-08-15 | | Lost |
| 955 | 1074 | 34% | 2015-05-15 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1074 | 40% | 2015-05-11 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 889 | 65% | 2015-05-04 | | Won |
| 959 | 955 | 51% | 2015-04-13 | | Won |
| 997 | 1212 | 22% | 2014-12-30 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1044 | 44% | 2014-10-08 | | Won |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1008.6 vs 1086.3 has a 39% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).