To Ashes
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 63 (18 on the archive and 45 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 30
Defender wins (British): 33
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1037 | 975 | 59% | 2026-03-04 | Won |
| 982 | 1031 | 43% | 2025-10-11 | Lost |
| 968 | 1085 | 34% | 2022-11-05 | Won |
| 920 | 1019 | 36% | 2020-10-09 | Lost |
| 1136 | 1179 | 44% | 2020-08-07 | Won |
| 1023 | 1136 | 34% | 2020-08-02 | Won |
| 1214 | 1123 | 63% | 2018-04-21 | Lost |
| 1064 | 1234 | 27% | 2018-03-24 | Lost |
| 1338 | 1264 | 60% | 2017-12-05 | Won |
| 1167 | 938 | 79% | 2016-03-27 | Lost |
| 1160 | 1043 | 66% | 2015-10-06 | Lost |
| 1185 | 1140 | 56% | 2015-08-15 | Lost |
| 941 | 983 | 44% | 2015-05-15 | Won |
| 1000 | 983 | 52% | 2015-05-11 | Lost |
| 1102 | 884 | 78% | 2015-05-04 | Won |
| 1134 | 955 | 74% | 2015-04-13 | Won |
| 1098 | 1160 | 41% | 2014-12-30 | Won |
| 1136 | 1059 | 61% | 2014-10-08 | Won |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1089.2 vs 1066.2 has a 53.31% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).