The Clearing
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 72 (26 on the archive and 46 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 35
Defender wins (German): 37
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1289 | 974 | 86% | 2025-02-11 | | Won |
| 974 | 987 | 48% | 2025-02-06 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 869 | 68% | 2025-01-15 | | Won |
| 981 | 996 | 48% | 2024-11-15 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1019 | 47% | 2024-11-13 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1127 | 32% | 2024-03-22 | | Lost |
| 970 | 1028 | 42% | 2024-03-04 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1106 | 35% | 2023-12-28 | | Lost |
| 1289 | 1000 | 84% | 2022-09-04 | | Won |
| 780 | 1141 | 11% | 2022-08-16 | | Lost |
| 1150 | 986 | 72% | 2022-01-09 | | Won |
| 1059 | 1000 | 58% | 2021-08-22 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1164 | 28% | 2020-12-12 | | Lost |
| 1008 | 750 | 82% | 2020-05-02 | | Won |
| 916 | 1138 | 22% | 2019-10-23 | | Lost |
| 979 | 1056 | 39% | 2019-10-11 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1061 | 41% | 2019-05-12 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1080 | 39% | 2018-10-07 | | Lost |
| 1134 | 992 | 69% | 2017-10-11 | | Won |
| 912 | 1131 | 22% | 2016-06-24 | | Lost |
| 1062 | 1000 | 59% | 2014-10-06 | | Won |
| 957 | 1059 | 36% | 2014-01-11 | | Lost |
| 1011 | 1149 | 31% | 2013-09-27 | | Won |
| 921 | 940 | 47% | 2013-06-20 | | Won |
| 964 | 1086 | 33% | | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1086 | 38% | | | Lost |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1013.7 vs 1035.6 has a 46.85% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).