A Frosty Morning
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 84 (28 on the archive and 56 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German / Italian): 52
Defender wins (British): 32
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1144 | 1038 | 65% | 2025-06-20 | Won |
| 1091 | 937 | 71% | 2025-04-12 | Won |
| 891 | 868 | 53% | 2025-01-22 | Won |
| 1021 | 1030 | 49% | 2024-12-15 | Won |
| 1113 | 881 | 79% | 2024-11-19 | Won |
| 1064 | 1060 | 51% | 2024-11-14 | Won |
| 1016 | 1016 | 50% | 2024-02-28 | Won |
| 1434 | 881 | 96% | 2023-06-10 | Won |
| 1068 | 1035 | 55% | 2021-03-08 | Won |
| 916 | 940 | 47% | 2021-03-01 | Won |
| 998 | 1217 | 22% | 2021-02-19 | Won |
| 951 | 1097 | 30% | 2020-09-30 | Lost |
| 1060 | 982 | 61% | 2020-09-01 | Lost |
| 1002 | 885 | 66% | 2020-01-30 | Won |
| 1284 | 1123 | 72% | 2019-03-30 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2017-12-17 | Lost |
| 1263 | 1077 | 74% | 2017-10-30 | Won |
| 972 | 1108 | 31% | 2015-11-14 | Lost |
| 1181 | 1140 | 56% | 2015-11-14 | Lost |
| 1108 | 966 | 69% | 2015-10-30 | Won |
| 1084 | 1127 | 44% | 2014-04-05 | Lost |
| 1045 | 1030 | 52% | 2014-03-08 | Won |
| 1000 | 1150 | 30% | 2014-01-13 | Won |
| 1176 | 1231 | 42% | 2013-10-28 | Lost |
| 1127 | 1099 | 54% | 2013-06-15 | Won |
| 1434 | 1150 | 84% | 2013-06-15 | Won |
| 1071 | 1099 | 46% | 2013-04-08 | Lost |
| 1136 | 1226 | 37% | 2013-02-22 | Won |
Attacking (19 wins) average ELOs: 1097.8 vs 1052.9 has a 56.42% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).