Hell for the Holidays
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 27
Attacker wins (German): 11
Defender wins (American): 16
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1035 | 973 | 59% | 2025-10-24 | Lost |
| 1220 | 999 | 78% | 2025-05-13 | Won |
| 1220 | 999 | 78% | 2025-05-13 | Won |
| 966 | 844 | 67% | 2024-12-20 | Won |
| 1035 | 1001 | 55% | 2024-12-01 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2023-08-27 | Won |
| 913 | 926 | 48% | 2022-12-18 | Won |
| 1003 | 1001 | 50% | 2021-12-30 | Lost |
| 1043 | 1043 | 50% | 2020-09-06 | Lost |
| 1218 | 1187 | 54% | 2020-06-10 | Won |
| 1218 | 1170 | 57% | 2020-06-10 | Won |
| 1105 | 1070 | 55% | 2020-01-12 | Lost |
| 879 | 1166 | 16% | 2019-06-19 | Lost |
| 1029 | 1046 | 48% | 2019-01-19 | Lost |
| 974 | 974 | 50% | 2018-12-16 | Lost |
| 1062 | 993 | 60% | 2014-03-28 | Lost |
| 1048 | 974 | 60% | 2013-06-21 | Won |
| 1149 | 967 | 74% | 2013-06-14 | Lost |
| 1108 | 1144 | 45% | 2013-03-19 | Lost |
| 1036 | 1027 | 51% | 2012-05-05 | Won |
| 1129 | 1135 | 49% | 2012-03-31 | Lost |
| 985 | 917 | 60% | 2012-03-24 | Lost |
| 1062 | 1158 | 37% | 2012-02-07 | Lost |
| 1087 | 1022 | 59% | 2012-01-12 | Won |
| 884 | 766 | 66% | 2012-01-12 | Lost |
| 1098 | 1343 | 20% | 2012-01-12 | Lost |
| 1036 | 1018 | 53% | | Lost |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1060.4 vs 1035.2 has a 53.61% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).