An Unfriendly Welcome
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 38 (10 on the archive and 28 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 24
Defender wins (German): 14
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2023-07-23 | Lost |
| 1034 | 998 | 55% | 2020-04-14 | Won |
| 1217 | 982 | 79% | 2017-01-17 | Lost |
| 1003 | 1018 | 48% | 2013-12-14 | Won |
| 1003 | 1018 | 48% | 2013-12-09 | Won |
| 969 | 972 | 50% | 2013-01-03 | Lost |
| 999 | 885 | 66% | 2011-12-01 | Won |
| 1196 | 1048 | 70% | 2011-09-06 | Won |
| 693 | 1080 | 10% | 2010-11-20 | Lost |
| 1117 | 1090 | 54% | | Lost |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1031.9 vs 1017.9 has a 52.01% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).