Taking Heads
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 179 (55 on the archive and 124 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese): 90
Defender wins (American): 89
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 939 | 928 | 52% | 2026-01-04 | Won |
| 952 | 1165 | 23% | 2025-03-15 | Lost |
| 1023 | 950 | 60% | 2025-03-15 | Lost |
| 1165 | 1182 | 48% | 2025-03-15 | Lost |
| 1185 | 1018 | 72% | 2024-10-06 | Won |
| 848 | 1080 | 21% | 2024-09-30 | Lost |
| 1035 | 1092 | 42% | 2024-09-28 | Lost |
| 1004 | 1021 | 48% | 2024-09-10 | Lost |
| 951 | 1009 | 42% | 2024-05-19 | Lost |
| 948 | 983 | 45% | 2022-11-04 | Won |
| 1084 | 985 | 64% | 2022-07-16 | Won |
| 1107 | 1084 | 53% | 2021-11-27 | Won |
| 1055 | 983 | 60% | 2021-11-27 | Lost |
| 944 | 1051 | 35% | 2021-11-13 | Lost |
| 965 | 971 | 49% | 2021-03-21 | Lost |
| 967 | 1035 | 40% | 2020-09-24 | Lost |
| 1109 | 1125 | 48% | 2020-08-08 | Won |
| 878 | 1102 | 22% | 2020-04-03 | Lost |
| 944 | 1048 | 35% | 2020-03-29 | Lost |
| 950 | 1182 | 21% | 2020-03-22 | Lost |
| 1165 | 991 | 73% | 2020-03-21 | Won |
| 1073 | 1126 | 42% | 2018-11-03 | Won |
| 1090 | 826 | 82% | 2018-10-30 | Won |
| 944 | 1146 | 24% | 2018-10-06 | Lost |
| 1136 | 1126 | 51% | 2018-07-03 | Lost |
| 864 | 998 | 32% | 2018-06-22 | Won |
| 1216 | 1140 | 61% | 2018-06-10 | Lost |
| 1143 | 983 | 72% | 2018-05-10 | Won |
| 1084 | 1139 | 42% | 2018-01-01 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2017-07-09 | Won |
| 970 | 1090 | 33% | 2017-03-26 | Lost |
| 1146 | 1154 | 49% | 2016-12-29 | Lost |
| 1263 | 1317 | 42% | 2016-08-09 | Lost |
| 1263 | 1138 | 67% | 2016-07-30 | Won |
| 850 | 873 | 47% | 2015-03-30 | Lost |
| 982 | 1146 | 28% | 2014-06-14 | Won |
| 1000 | 1151 | 30% | 2014-03-04 | Lost |
| 1151 | 1000 | 70% | 2014-01-27 | Won |
| 1219 | 1064 | 71% | 2013-04-14 | Lost |
| 1219 | 1064 | 71% | 2013-03-10 | Lost |
| 965 | 766 | 76% | 2012-12-01 | Won |
| 1134 | 1028 | 65% | 2011-10-08 | Won |
| 1227 | 1096 | 68% | 2011-07-29 | Won |
| 1019 | 864 | 71% | 2011-03-12 | Won |
| 1167 | 1063 | 65% | 2011-03-12 | Won |
| 998 | 1202 | 24% | 2011-03-12 | Won |
| 1206 | 1141 | 59% | 2011-02-26 | Won |
| 1140 | 1019 | 67% | 2011-02-10 | Won |
| 1167 | 939 | 79% | 2011-01-20 | Lost |
| 1060 | 1175 | 34% | 2010-08-15 | Won |
| 1223 | 1120 | 64% | 2010-08-13 | Won |
| 1058 | 1017 | 56% | 2010-05-28 | Won |
| 919 | 1094 | 27% | 2010-03-12 | Won |
Attacking (28 wins) average ELOs: 1060.4 vs 1058.1 has a 50.34% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).