Bidermann's Escape
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 236 (55 on the archive and 181 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 123
Defender wins (Russian): 113
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1135 | 31% | 2024-10-14 | | Lost |
| 1077 | 1000 | 61% | 2024-07-12 | | Won |
| 1219 | 1001 | 78% | 2024-01-13 | | Lost |
| 1014 | 1028 | 48% | 2024-01-12 | | Lost |
| 1177 | 1000 | 73% | 2022-09-11 | | Won |
| 1343 | 1000 | 88% | 2021-06-18 | | Lost |
| 1150 | 1036 | 66% | 2021-03-17 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1064 | 41% | 2020-06-12 | | Lost |
| 1132 | 1000 | 68% | 2020-02-27 | | Lost |
| 1030 | 1216 | 26% | 2020-02-08 | | Won |
| 1028 | 1242 | 23% | 2020-01-10 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 982 | 53% | 2019-11-30 | | Won |
| 1076 | 1003 | 60% | 2019-02-08 | | Won |
| 1014 | 1000 | 52% | 2018-08-04 | | Won |
| 1159 | 1000 | 71% | 2017-07-20 | | Won |
| 1141 | 1097 | 56% | 2016-11-06 | | Lost |
| 979 | 1076 | 36% | 2016-05-27 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1185 | 26% | 2015-01-24 | | Lost |
| 1074 | 1000 | 60% | 2015-01-24 | | Lost |
| 1058 | 1035 | 53% | 2015-01-23 | | Won |
| 1039 | 1000 | 56% | 2014-04-12 | | Won |
| 1039 | 1013 | 54% | 2014-03-24 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1125 | 33% | 2013-10-25 | | Lost |
| 991 | 1000 | 49% | 2013-05-18 | | Won |
| 1219 | 1000 | 78% | 2013-05-11 | | Won |
| 1101 | 983 | 66% | 2013-04-13 | | Won |
| 1101 | 983 | 66% | 2013-04-13 | | Won |
| 1226 | 1000 | 79% | 2012-12-12 | | Won |
| 1076 | 1000 | 61% | 2012-10-06 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1101 | 36% | 2012-10-03 | | Won |
| 1099 | 1058 | 56% | 2012-05-30 | | Won |
| 1108 | 1000 | 65% | 2012-02-24 | | Lost |
| 1016 | 904 | 66% | 2011-10-06 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1136 | 31% | 2010-11-01 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1230 | 21% | 2010-10-31 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1230 | 21% | 2010-10-07 | | Lost |
| 851 | 1019 | 28% | 2010-08-21 | | Lost |
| 1171 | 1136 | 55% | 2010-08-01 | | Won |
| 933 | 1183 | 19% | 2010-07-12 | | Lost |
| 1183 | 1134 | 57% | 2010-06-27 | | Won |
| 1000 | 960 | 56% | 2010-06-27 | | Lost |
| 851 | 1000 | 30% | 2010-04-01 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1149 | 30% | 2010-02-27 | | Lost |
| 1310 | 1185 | 67% | 2010-01-01 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1011 | 48% | 2009-09-18 | | Lost |
| 1435 | 1000 | 92% | 2009-09-11 | | Won |
| 1076 | 1008 | 60% | 2009-07-10 | | Won |
| 1076 | 1008 | 60% | 2009-07-10 | | Won |
| 970 | 1062 | 37% | 2009-06-13 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1015 | 48% | 2009-03-10 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1076 | 39% | 2008-10-01 | | Lost |
| 1141 | 1000 | 69% | 2008-08-29 | | Won |
| 1040 | 1140 | 36% | 2008-06-23 | | Lost |
| 1018 | 1086 | 40% | | | Lost |
Attacking (29 wins) average ELOs: 1069.3 vs 1056.2 has a 51.88% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).