Eviction Notice
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 212 (44 on the archive and 168 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 112
Defender wins (German): 100
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 885 | 979 | 37% | 2025-03-02 | Won |
| 1143 | 1088 | 58% | 2025-02-20 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1040 | 46% | 2024-01-25 | Lost |
| 1066 | 1215 | 30% | 2024-01-15 | Lost |
| 969 | 994 | 46% | 2022-03-12 | Won |
| 989 | 989 | 50% | 2022-03-12 | Won |
| 1019 | 1217 | 24% | 2021-01-21 | Won |
| 1173 | 1173 | 50% | 2019-03-19 | Lost |
| 1083 | 1035 | 57% | 2018-10-11 | Won |
| 1005 | 1005 | 50% | 2018-07-07 | Won |
| 928 | 1151 | 22% | 2018-06-23 | Won |
| 967 | 942 | 54% | 2018-05-12 | Lost |
| 996 | 983 | 52% | 2018-05-05 | Lost |
| 1040 | 1107 | 40% | 2018-03-20 | Lost |
| 976 | 992 | 48% | 2017-11-19 | Lost |
| 1042 | 1202 | 28% | 2017-11-19 | Won |
| 1098 | 1131 | 45% | 2017-11-15 | Lost |
| 786 | 1226 | 7% | 2017-07-12 | Lost |
| 1337 | 1263 | 60% | 2017-03-27 | Won |
| 1098 | 1131 | 45% | 2015-12-04 | Lost |
| 968 | 1138 | 27% | 2015-09-25 | Lost |
| 1038 | 1020 | 53% | 2014-12-05 | Lost |
| 1102 | 885 | 78% | 2014-03-29 | Won |
| 998 | 1003 | 49% | 2014-03-04 | Lost |
| 933 | 870 | 59% | 2012-03-04 | Won |
| 870 | 1101 | 21% | 2011-01-27 | Won |
| 1263 | 934 | 87% | 2010-11-28 | Won |
| 976 | 1019 | 44% | 2010-10-30 | Lost |
| 1086 | 1019 | 60% | 2010-08-24 | Lost |
| 1019 | 851 | 72% | 2010-08-19 | Won |
| 962 | 974 | 48% | 2010-07-01 | Won |
| 1129 | 972 | 71% | 2010-01-16 | Lost |
| 989 | 1098 | 35% | 2009-05-03 | Lost |
| 997 | 1000 | 50% | 2009-01-30 | Won |
| 1061 | 1060 | 50% | 2009-01-25 | Lost |
| 1035 | 1269 | 21% | 2008-10-08 | Lost |
| 1150 | 961 | 75% | 2008-06-07 | Won |
| 1095 | 1101 | 49% | 2008-05-17 | Won |
| 1101 | 1095 | 51% | 2008-04-22 | Lost |
| 1150 | 1434 | 16% | 2008-04-12 | Lost |
| 1021 | 1051 | 46% | 2008-03-30 | Won |
| 1070 | 930 | 69% | 2008-02-23 | Won |
| 961 | 1142 | 26% | 2008-02-22 | Won |
| 933 | 1056 | 33% | 2008-01-18 | Lost |
Attacking (21 wins) average ELOs: 1034.5 vs 1064.7 has a 45.66% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).