A Dangerous Possibility
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 57 (13 on the archive and 44 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 24
Defender wins (German): 33
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1041 | 1041 | 50% | 2025-03-08 | Lost |
| 1172 | 1172 | 50% | 2018-04-24 | Won |
| 1066 | 1066 | 50% | 2016-03-16 | Won |
| 941 | 1117 | 27% | 2015-01-12 | Won |
| 1071 | 929 | 69% | 2013-03-23 | Won |
| 870 | 1101 | 21% | 2011-04-25 | Won |
| 1024 | 1010 | 52% | 2009-02-07 | Lost |
| 1025 | 1027 | 50% | 2009-01-13 | Lost |
| 1218 | 1140 | 61% | 2008-10-09 | Won |
| 1068 | 1243 | 27% | 2008-05-15 | Lost |
| 1014 | 1103 | 37% | 2008-02-28 | Lost |
| 985 | 1174 | 25% | 2008-02-02 | Lost |
| 1162 | 1012 | 70% | 2008-01-01 | Won |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1050.5 vs 1087.3 has a 44.73% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).