The Grist Mill
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 10 (7 on the archive and 3 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (NKPA): 3
Defender wins (American): 7
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1161 | 1196 | 45% | 2026-07-24 | Won |
| 928 | 1019 | 37% | 2021-09-12 | Lost |
| 1084 | 1053 | 54% | 2019-10-08 | Won |
| 1073 | 930 | 69% | 2018-11-29 | Lost |
| 1135 | 1094 | 56% | 2018-04-29 | Lost |
| 1047 | 1000 | 57% | 2018-04-23 | Lost |
| 957 | 1227 | 17% | 2007-03-09 | Lost |
Attacking (2 wins) average ELOs: 1055 vs 1074.1 has a 47.25% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).