The Grist Mill
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 10 (7 on the archive and 3 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (NKPA): 3
Defender wins (American): 7
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1194 | 1211 | 48% | 2026-07-24 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1019 | 47% | 2021-09-12 | | Lost |
| 1008 | 1000 | 51% | 2019-10-08 | | Won |
| 1066 | 1000 | 59% | 2018-11-29 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1060 | 41% | 2018-04-29 | | Lost |
| 1008 | 1051 | 44% | 2018-04-23 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1185 | 26% | 2007-03-09 | | Lost |
Attacking (2 wins) average ELOs: 1039.4 vs 1075.1 has a 44.88% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).