Holding the Hotton Bridge
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 31
Attacker wins (German): 14
Defender wins (American): 17
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 980 | 995 | 48% | 2022-04-08 | Won |
| 989 | 989 | 50% | 2022-04-08 | Won |
| 971 | 1282 | 14% | 2022-03-12 | Lost |
| 1080 | 840 | 80% | 2020-06-14 | Won |
| 1135 | 954 | 74% | 2020-05-10 | Won |
| 1025 | 985 | 56% | 2019-06-18 | Won |
| 1050 | 1047 | 50% | 2017-11-05 | Lost |
| 1080 | 910 | 73% | 2015-03-29 | Lost |
| 931 | 986 | 42% | 2015-01-31 | Won |
| 999 | 1052 | 42% | 2014-12-07 | Lost |
| 1217 | 982 | 79% | 2013-05-13 | Lost |
| 1100 | 1095 | 51% | 2010-11-30 | Won |
| 1095 | 1100 | 49% | 2010-10-09 | Won |
| 1061 | 1044 | 52% | 2010-08-28 | Lost |
| 1029 | 1011 | 53% | 2009-11-19 | Won |
| 997 | 1083 | 38% | 2008-12-26 | Lost |
| 1011 | 1083 | 40% | 2008-12-08 | Lost |
| 1133 | 1228 | 37% | 2008-08-15 | Lost |
| 1204 | 978 | 79% | 2006-10-24 | Lost |
| 1100 | 1050 | 57% | 2006-05-07 | Lost |
| 1033 | 1117 | 38% | 2005-02-10 | Won |
| 1105 | 1068 | 55% | 2005-01-23 | Won |
| 1048 | 1013 | 55% | 2004-07-22 | Won |
| 1048 | 1204 | 29% | 2004-02-24 | Won |
| 831 | 1204 | 10% | 2003-12-24 | Lost |
| 1204 | 1003 | 76% | 2001-06-22 | Lost |
| 713 | 1151 | 7% | 1999-07-05 | Won |
| 890 | 1100 | 23% | 1998-09-12 | Lost |
| 1090 | 1117 | 46% | | Lost |
| 1030 | 1117 | 38% | | Lost |
| 1030 | 1117 | 38% | | Lost |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1039 vs 1061.5 has a 46.77% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).