Holding the Hotton Bridge
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 31
Attacker wins (German): 14
Defender wins (American): 17
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 984 | 984 | 50% | 2022-04-08 | Won |
| 989 | 989 | 50% | 2022-04-08 | Won |
| 973 | 1220 | 19% | 2022-03-12 | Lost |
| 1022 | 839 | 74% | 2020-06-14 | Won |
| 1136 | 954 | 74% | 2020-05-10 | Won |
| 1166 | 985 | 74% | 2019-06-18 | Won |
| 993 | 998 | 49% | 2017-11-05 | Lost |
| 1022 | 941 | 61% | 2015-03-29 | Lost |
| 920 | 985 | 41% | 2015-01-31 | Won |
| 1000 | 974 | 54% | 2014-12-07 | Lost |
| 1218 | 982 | 80% | 2013-05-13 | Lost |
| 1101 | 1095 | 51% | 2010-11-30 | Won |
| 1095 | 1101 | 49% | 2010-10-09 | Won |
| 1058 | 1044 | 52% | 2010-08-28 | Lost |
| 1028 | 1015 | 52% | 2009-11-19 | Won |
| 987 | 1085 | 36% | 2008-12-26 | Lost |
| 1015 | 1085 | 40% | 2008-12-08 | Lost |
| 1133 | 1233 | 36% | 2008-08-15 | Lost |
| 1158 | 976 | 74% | 2006-10-24 | Lost |
| 1101 | 1050 | 57% | 2006-05-07 | Lost |
| 1033 | 1118 | 38% | 2005-02-10 | Won |
| 1097 | 1060 | 55% | 2005-01-23 | Won |
| 1062 | 1050 | 52% | 2004-07-22 | Won |
| 1062 | 1158 | 37% | 2004-02-24 | Won |
| 833 | 1170 | 13% | 2003-12-24 | Lost |
| 1170 | 1009 | 72% | 2001-06-22 | Lost |
| 753 | 1141 | 10% | 1999-07-05 | Won |
| 992 | 1101 | 35% | 1998-09-12 | Lost |
| 1018 | 1036 | 47% | | Lost |
| 1018 | 1036 | 47% | | Lost |
| 1018 | 1036 | 47% | | Lost |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1037.3 vs 1046.8 has a 48.63% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).