The Road to Lyon
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 23
Attacker wins (German): 16
Defender wins (French): 5
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 933 | 907 | 54% | 2026-05-02 | Won |
| 1086 | 1086 | 50% | 2026-04-04 | Won |
| 1216 | 1023 | 75% | 2023-01-29 | Won |
| 914 | 1020 | 35% | 2021-11-19 | Won |
| 1271 | 1078 | 75% | 2020-11-28 | Won |
| 992 | 1097 | 35% | 2020-11-06 | Lost |
| 1046 | 1000 | 57% | 2017-05-09 | Won |
| 846 | 981 | 31% | 2017-03-04 | Won |
| 846 | 981 | 31% | 2017-03-04 | Won |
| 1151 | 993 | 71% | 2014-10-05 | Won |
| 1147 | 965 | 74% | 2012-10-26 | Won |
| 1052 | 694 | 89% | 2012-03-17 | Won |
| 694 | 1010 | 14% | 2012-03-16 | Won |
| 1015 | 1080 | 41% | 2010-04-01 | Won |
| 1117 | 1034 | 62% | 2007-04-10 | Won |
| 862 | 1151 | 16% | 2007-03-30 | Won |
| 1211 | 1186 | 54% | 2006-09-08 | Tied |
| 1286 | 1211 | 61% | 2006-06-22 | Tied |
| 1095 | 1101 | 49% | 2004-07-06 | Lost |
| 1101 | 1095 | 51% | 2004-06-30 | Lost |
| 1002 | 1140 | 31% | 2003-11-09 | Lost |
| 1342 | 1327 | 52% | 2003-07-24 | Lost |
| 1140 | 899 | 80% | 2002-01-24 | Won |
Attacking (16 wins) average ELOs: 1059.3 vs 1046 has a 51.91% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).