Ambitious Assault
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 171 (76 on the archive and 95 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (British/American): 43
Defender wins (Italian): 126
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1031 | 1014 | 52% | 2024-10-18 | Lost |
| 1023 | 1014 | 51% | 2024-08-20 | Won |
| 1003 | 1003 | 50% | 2024-02-14 | Lost |
| 1064 | 1064 | 50% | 2023-12-06 | Lost |
| 1036 | 1041 | 49% | 2023-09-28 | Lost |
| 1221 | 1246 | 46% | 2023-07-24 | Lost |
| 1134 | 1125 | 51% | 2023-04-22 | Won |
| 1014 | 1067 | 42% | 2023-02-13 | Lost |
| 1014 | 1012 | 50% | 2022-09-25 | Lost |
| 939 | 1004 | 41% | 2022-08-14 | Won |
| 1012 | 1014 | 50% | 2022-07-19 | Won |
| 956 | 1014 | 42% | 2022-06-05 | Lost |
| 1142 | 1142 | 50% | 2022-05-06 | Lost |
| 1141 | 1014 | 68% | 2022-04-19 | Lost |
| 981 | 1026 | 44% | 2021-07-11 | Lost |
| 1002 | 913 | 63% | 2021-05-02 | Won |
| 1085 | 1069 | 52% | 2021-02-08 | Lost |
| 1038 | 1030 | 51% | 2021-02-01 | Tied |
| 1009 | 1006 | 50% | 2020-12-01 | Lost |
| 1141 | 1016 | 67% | 2020-11-26 | Won |
| 979 | 1038 | 42% | 2020-10-05 | Lost |
| 1192 | 1116 | 61% | 2020-08-17 | Won |
| 1255 | 996 | 82% | 2020-07-03 | Lost |
| 997 | 984 | 52% | 2020-05-01 | Lost |
| 1427 | 1431 | 49% | 2020-02-11 | Lost |
| 888 | 908 | 47% | 2019-12-13 | Lost |
| 1014 | 1113 | 36% | 2019-12-12 | Lost |
| 1431 | 1217 | 77% | 2019-11-02 | Lost |
| 985 | 1165 | 26% | 2019-08-23 | Lost |
| 1165 | 1107 | 58% | 2019-07-13 | Lost |
| 1140 | 944 | 76% | 2019-07-02 | Won |
| 989 | 997 | 49% | 2019-05-06 | Won |
| 929 | 942 | 48% | 2018-09-16 | Won |
| 985 | 913 | 60% | 2018-05-05 | Lost |
| 1101 | 1108 | 49% | 2017-05-18 | Lost |
| 1144 | 1144 | 50% | 2017-05-14 | Won |
| 1003 | 1014 | 48% | 2017-02-01 | Lost |
| 1116 | 893 | 78% | 2017-01-01 | Won |
| 1014 | 881 | 68% | 2016-07-27 | Tied |
| 881 | 870 | 52% | 2016-07-05 | Lost |
| 926 | 892 | 55% | 2016-07-03 | Lost |
| 961 | 931 | 54% | 2016-05-21 | Lost |
| 1073 | 1142 | 40% | 2016-05-17 | Lost |
| 1111 | 1113 | 50% | 2015-08-08 | Lost |
| 1113 | 1127 | 48% | 2015-07-20 | Lost |
| 1014 | 990 | 53% | 2015-07-07 | Lost |
| 1157 | 1431 | 17% | 2015-06-11 | Lost |
| 1228 | 1164 | 59% | 2014-10-07 | Lost |
| 1003 | 1014 | 48% | 2014-09-07 | Lost |
| 1003 | 1014 | 48% | 2014-03-27 | Won |
| 981 | 981 | 50% | 2014-02-07 | Won |
| 1144 | 1087 | 58% | 2013-07-15 | Lost |
| 1209 | 1209 | 50% | 2013-01-05 | Won |
| 938 | 1014 | 39% | 2012-09-23 | Lost |
| 1018 | 999 | 53% | 2012-02-14 | Lost |
| 1047 | 1047 | 50% | 2011-09-15 | Lost |
| 1142 | 1228 | 38% | 2011-02-21 | Lost |
| 983 | 944 | 56% | 2010-06-23 | Lost |
| 992 | 1012 | 47% | 2010-02-15 | Lost |
| 1228 | 1135 | 63% | 2009-10-22 | Won |
| 920 | 1014 | 37% | 2009-07-28 | Won |
| 920 | 1014 | 37% | 2009-07-28 | Won |
| 946 | 951 | 49% | 2009-07-12 | Lost |
| 920 | 1014 | 37% | 2009-05-13 | Lost |
| 920 | 1014 | 37% | 2009-05-13 | Lost |
| 953 | 931 | 53% | 2008-05-15 | Lost |
| 977 | 1141 | 28% | 2007-12-22 | Lost |
| 958 | 1015 | 42% | 2007-07-02 | Won |
| 1141 | 1081 | 59% | 2007-05-28 | Lost |
| 1271 | 1015 | 81% | 2006-11-10 | Lost |
| 1038 | 1094 | 42% | 2006-08-25 | Lost |
| 1119 | 1094 | 54% | 2006-08-05 | Lost |
| 941 | 1074 | 32% | 2006-07-24 | Lost |
| 943 | 1010 | 40% | 2006-03-14 | Won |
| 860 | 832 | 54% | 2006-03-13 | Lost |
| 889 | 978 | 37% | 2005-07-01 | Lost |
Attacking (20 wins) average ELOs: 1047.5 vs 1044.2 has a 50.47% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).