Ad Hoc at Chef-Du-Pont
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 105 (49 on the archive and 56 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 55
Defender wins (German): 49
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1014 | 1031 | 48% | 2024-09-24 | Lost |
| 1026 | 1015 | 52% | 2024-09-21 | Won |
| 1014 | 1023 | 49% | 2024-08-19 | Won |
| 1036 | 1041 | 49% | 2023-09-28 | Lost |
| 1221 | 1246 | 46% | 2023-06-22 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1006 | 57% | 2022-04-15 | Won |
| 1141 | 1014 | 68% | 2022-04-10 | Lost |
| 1142 | 1142 | 50% | 2022-03-05 | Won |
| 1002 | 971 | 54% | 2021-03-28 | Won |
| 1030 | 1027 | 50% | 2021-03-14 | Lost |
| 908 | 1076 | 28% | 2021-01-02 | Won |
| 964 | 1141 | 27% | 2020-12-08 | Lost |
| 1006 | 1158 | 29% | 2020-12-06 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1001 | 51% | 2020-11-14 | Lost |
| 982 | 1158 | 27% | 2020-11-13 | Lost |
| 1143 | 996 | 70% | 2020-11-12 | Won |
| 1006 | 837 | 73% | 2020-11-11 | Won |
| 1006 | 837 | 73% | 2020-11-11 | Won |
| 1143 | 1115 | 54% | 2020-11-08 | Won |
| 1158 | 982 | 73% | 2020-11-07 | Won |
| 960 | 1149 | 25% | 2020-10-30 | Lost |
| 1078 | 977 | 64% | 2020-08-20 | Won |
| 1229 | 1151 | 61% | 2020-05-08 | Lost |
| 1140 | 1250 | 35% | 2020-04-03 | Won |
| 1113 | 1113 | 50% | 2020-03-07 | Lost |
| 984 | 997 | 48% | 2020-01-30 | Won |
| 1165 | 1110 | 58% | 2019-10-30 | Won |
| 1144 | 1144 | 50% | 2017-05-19 | Won |
| 1101 | 1108 | 49% | 2017-05-18 | Won |
| 893 | 1116 | 22% | 2016-12-31 | Lost |
| 881 | 1014 | 32% | 2016-07-26 | Tied |
| 986 | 851 | 69% | 2015-11-08 | Won |
| 986 | 851 | 69% | 2015-11-07 | Won |
| 1171 | 1431 | 18% | 2015-11-04 | Lost |
| 1014 | 1113 | 36% | 2015-07-10 | Lost |
| 1099 | 1113 | 48% | 2015-07-02 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1009 | 50% | 2015-03-11 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1009 | 50% | 2015-03-11 | Lost |
| 1145 | 1129 | 52% | 2015-01-03 | Lost |
| 962 | 1038 | 39% | 2014-05-22 | Lost |
| 1064 | 981 | 62% | 2014-02-06 | Lost |
| 1209 | 1209 | 50% | 2013-12-01 | Lost |
| 938 | 1014 | 39% | 2011-10-10 | Lost |
| 1228 | 1135 | 63% | 2009-11-04 | Lost |
| 1014 | 951 | 59% | 2008-11-14 | Won |
| 1001 | 872 | 68% | 2007-03-01 | Won |
| 1001 | 937 | 59% | 2007-02-03 | Lost |
| 1094 | 984 | 65% | 2006-08-12 | Lost |
| 832 | 832 | 50% | 2006-02-05 | Lost |
Attacking (21 wins) average ELOs: 1050.1 vs 1049.1 has a 50.15% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).