Ultimate Treachery
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 124 (30 on the archive and 94 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese): 60
Defender wins (French): 64
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1135 | 1037 | 64% | 2020-10-10 | Lost |
| 1215 | 1152 | 59% | 2020-10-10 | Won |
| 1010 | 993 | 52% | 2020-07-14 | Lost |
| 1189 | 1077 | 66% | 2020-05-03 | Lost |
| 1090 | 1058 | 55% | 2019-06-28 | Won |
| 1160 | 919 | 80% | 2018-06-16 | Lost |
| 1153 | 974 | 74% | 2018-05-18 | Lost |
| 1174 | 1173 | 50% | 2018-04-10 | Won |
| 947 | 947 | 50% | 2018-03-24 | Won |
| 1249 | 1080 | 73% | 2017-07-28 | Won |
| 1313 | 1263 | 57% | 2017-07-28 | Lost |
| 1263 | 953 | 86% | 2017-06-17 | Won |
| 1039 | 1003 | 55% | 2017-05-20 | Won |
| 1015 | 930 | 62% | 2017-03-03 | Lost |
| 1015 | 960 | 58% | 2015-11-06 | Won |
| 870 | 982 | 34% | 2012-09-02 | Won |
| 870 | 1093 | 22% | 2012-01-06 | Lost |
| 1234 | 1114 | 67% | 2011-10-29 | Won |
| 1122 | 1060 | 59% | 2010-04-24 | Won |
| 1040 | 1143 | 36% | 2009-10-08 | Lost |
| 1179 | 1263 | 38% | 2009-10-08 | Lost |
| 1036 | 1204 | 28% | 2007-09-08 | Won |
| 1002 | 1172 | 27% | 2006-02-26 | Won |
| 994 | 1041 | 43% | 2004-03-20 | Won |
| 1026 | 1026 | 50% | 2004-02-22 | Lost |
| 1008 | 1141 | 32% | 2003-10-08 | Lost |
| 1263 | 959 | 85% | 2003-07-11 | Won |
| 949 | 1024 | 39% | 2003-05-17 | Lost |
| 1343 | 1054 | 84% | 2003-01-18 | Lost |
| 1343 | 1036 | 85% | | Lost |
Attacking (15 wins) average ELOs: 1108.2 vs 1061 has a 56.75% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).