Ultimate Treachery
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 118 (24 on the archive and 94 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese): 58
Defender wins (French): 60
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1078 | 1007 | 60% | 2020-10-10 | Lost |
| 1215 | 1151 | 59% | 2020-10-10 | Won |
| 1010 | 993 | 52% | 2020-07-14 | Lost |
| 1204 | 1066 | 69% | 2020-05-03 | Lost |
| 1090 | 1075 | 52% | 2019-06-28 | Won |
| 1030 | 1041 | 48% | 2018-06-16 | Lost |
| 1089 | 1052 | 55% | 2018-05-18 | Lost |
| 1173 | 1172 | 50% | 2018-04-10 | Won |
| 954 | 954 | 50% | 2018-03-24 | Won |
| 1245 | 1080 | 72% | 2017-07-28 | Won |
| 1045 | 1003 | 56% | 2017-05-20 | Won |
| 1031 | 930 | 64% | 2017-03-03 | Lost |
| 1031 | 960 | 60% | 2015-11-06 | Won |
| 870 | 982 | 34% | 2012-09-02 | Won |
| 870 | 1093 | 22% | 2012-01-06 | Lost |
| 1340 | 1110 | 79% | 2011-10-29 | Won |
| 1122 | 1068 | 58% | 2010-04-24 | Won |
| 1089 | 1139 | 43% | 2009-10-08 | Lost |
| 1041 | 1204 | 28% | 2007-09-08 | Won |
| 995 | 1213 | 22% | 2006-02-26 | Won |
| 1109 | 1042 | 60% | 2004-03-20 | Won |
| 1008 | 1151 | 31% | 2003-10-08 | Lost |
| 928 | 1081 | 29% | 2003-05-17 | Lost |
| 1219 | 1117 | 64% | | Lost |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1074.4 vs 1070.2 has a 50.61% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).