The Last Roadblock
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 118 (26 on the archive and 93 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 63
Defender wins (French / Norwegian): 54
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (German): 0
Defender wins (French / Norwegian): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1120 | 1000 | 67% | 2026-03-24 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2025-12-11 | | Lost |
| 1019 | 1092 | 40% | 2024-07-31 | | Won |
| 1058 | 1019 | 56% | 2023-06-28 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1019 | 47% | 2023-06-27 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1072 | 40% | 2023-02-06 | A | Lost |
| 977 | 1000 | 47% | 2021-09-24 | | Won |
| 1038 | 1014 | 53% | 2021-03-19 | | Won |
| 979 | 872 | 65% | 2021-03-04 | | Lost |
| 1007 | 1000 | 51% | 2020-07-27 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 948 | 57% | 2020-03-27 | | Lost |
| 1134 | 1091 | 56% | 2017-09-11 | | Lost |
| 1138 | 1091 | 57% | 2017-06-24 | | Lost |
| 1138 | 1150 | 48% | 2017-06-24 | | Lost |
| 1138 | 945 | 75% | 2016-06-25 | | Won |
| 1133 | 972 | 72% | 2013-08-27 | | Won |
| 1000 | 973 | 54% | 2013-03-10 | | Won |
| 1230 | 1000 | 79% | 2008-04-12 | | Won |
| 1087 | 1061 | 54% | 2007-05-27 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1185 | 26% | 2005-10-08 | | Tied |
| 1242 | 982 | 82% | 2003-06-28 | | Won |
| 1002 | 907 | 63% | 2003-06-20 | | Won |
| 907 | 1003 | 37% | 2003-05-17 | | Lost |
| 1059 | 982 | 61% | 2002-04-27 | | Won |
| 1343 | 1000 | 88% | 2002-04-27 | | Won |
| 1045 | 1141 | 37% | 2001-10-01 | | Lost |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1069 vs 1020 has a 57.01% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).