Audacity!
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 187 (26 on the archive and 161 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (French): 88
Defender wins (German ): 99
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1120 | 1120 | 50% | 2026-03-23 | | Won |
| 950 | 1058 | 35% | 2023-06-25 | | Lost |
| 952 | 974 | 47% | 2023-05-17 | | Won |
| 1000 | 952 | 57% | 2023-04-14 | | Lost |
| 1072 | 968 | 65% | 2021-10-24 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 941 | 58% | 2021-05-23 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 999 | 50% | 2021-04-25 | | Won |
| 979 | 872 | 65% | 2021-03-04 | | Lost |
| 1136 | 947 | 75% | 2021-03-03 | | Lost |
| 1128 | 989 | 69% | 2021-02-23 | | Lost |
| 1011 | 986 | 54% | 2019-09-30 | | Lost |
| 1134 | 962 | 73% | 2018-12-11 | | Won |
| 1185 | 1077 | 65% | 2016-10-08 | | Lost |
| 919 | 1150 | 21% | 2016-08-01 | | Won |
| 945 | 1220 | 17% | 2012-10-27 | | Lost |
| 1133 | 1000 | 68% | 2012-02-10 | | Lost |
| 1056 | 1000 | 58% | 2010-01-23 | | Won |
| 1035 | 1000 | 55% | 2007-03-07 | | Lost |
| 1242 | 1000 | 80% | 2004-03-21 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1120 | 33% | 2002-12-31 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1061 | 41% | 2002-10-12 | | Won |
| 1141 | 1000 | 69% | 2002-10-10 | | Won |
| 960 | 1000 | 44% | 2001-10-27 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1101 | 36% | 2001-06-28 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1101 | 36% | 2001-06-23 | | Lost |
| 780 | 1141 | 11% | 2001-05-29 | | Lost |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1033.8 vs 1028.4 has a 50.77% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).