Audacity!
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 178 (20 on the archive and 158 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German ): 89
Defender wins (French): 89
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1011 | 955 | 58% | 2023-06-25 | Won |
| 996 | 913 | 62% | 2023-05-17 | Lost |
| 1036 | 1001 | 55% | 2023-04-14 | Won |
| 1008 | 1025 | 48% | 2021-10-24 | Won |
| 939 | 939 | 50% | 2021-05-23 | Won |
| 992 | 1014 | 47% | 2021-04-25 | Lost |
| 970 | 882 | 62% | 2021-03-04 | Won |
| 952 | 1120 | 28% | 2021-03-03 | Won |
| 1055 | 1118 | 41% | 2021-02-23 | Won |
| 976 | 1084 | 35% | 2019-09-30 | Won |
| 1038 | 1119 | 39% | 2016-10-08 | Won |
| 1129 | 917 | 77% | 2016-08-01 | Lost |
| 1209 | 954 | 81% | 2012-10-27 | Won |
| 933 | 982 | 43% | 2012-02-10 | Won |
| 1031 | 1056 | 46% | 2010-01-23 | Lost |
| 1207 | 1030 | 73% | 2007-03-07 | Won |
| 1100 | 1044 | 58% | 2002-12-31 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1011 | 50% | 2001-10-27 | Won |
| 1098 | 1096 | 50% | 2001-06-28 | Lost |
| 1098 | 890 | 77% | 2001-06-23 | Won |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1039.4 vs 1007.5 has a 54.57% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).