The Waterhole
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 92 (17 on the archive and 75 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese): 52
Defender wins (American): 40
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 991 | 991 | 50% | 2025-05-25 | | Lost |
| 1072 | 968 | 65% | 2024-01-28 | | Lost |
| 818 | 1056 | 20% | 2023-10-13 | | Won |
| 1064 | 1000 | 59% | 2021-11-09 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1151 | 30% | 2007-02-03 | | Lost |
| 1027 | 1036 | 49% | 2006-12-02 | | Lost |
| 1242 | 1000 | 80% | 2004-04-25 | | Lost |
| 982 | 1185 | 24% | 2002-01-28 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1074 | 40% | 2002-01-28 | | Won |
| 1185 | 1122 | 59% | 2002-01-17 | | Lost |
| 1035 | 1000 | 55% | 2000-01-01 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1242 | 20% | 1999-05-02 | | Lost |
| 1242 | 1000 | 80% | 1998-10-25 | | Won |
| 866 | 1074 | 23% | 1998-09-06 | | Lost |
| 750 | 1242 | 6% | 1997-10-11 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1086 | 38% | | | Won |
| 1086 | 832 | 81% | | | Won |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1021.2 vs 1062.3 has a 44.11% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).