Liberating Bessarabia
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 38
Attacker wins (Romanian): 29
Defender wins (Russian): 9
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1009 | 49% | 2024-01-13 | Won |
| 1141 | 951 | 75% | 2023-11-04 | Won |
| 1241 | 1221 | 53% | 2023-04-22 | Lost |
| 1041 | 1011 | 54% | 2022-04-09 | Won |
| 1100 | 969 | 68% | 2022-02-05 | Won |
| 1022 | 1021 | 50% | 2021-06-10 | Lost |
| 1008 | 991 | 52% | 2020-07-06 | Won |
| 1059 | 1055 | 51% | 2018-04-24 | Won |
| 1058 | 976 | 62% | 2018-03-10 | Won |
| 906 | 937 | 46% | 2018-03-02 | Won |
| 1150 | 1053 | 64% | 2016-11-03 | Won |
| 1219 | 890 | 87% | 2016-08-03 | Won |
| 982 | 837 | 70% | 2015-12-30 | Lost |
| 1058 | 982 | 61% | 2015-12-28 | Won |
| 1199 | 935 | 82% | 2015-06-18 | Won |
| 1091 | 889 | 76% | 2014-10-08 | Won |
| 1199 | 1054 | 70% | 2013-12-05 | Lost |
| 1038 | 1029 | 51% | 2013-06-16 | Won |
| 1009 | 1110 | 36% | 2012-08-11 | Lost |
| 1111 | 1058 | 58% | 2011-12-12 | Won |
| 969 | 1094 | 33% | 2010-10-22 | Won |
| 920 | 920 | 50% | 2010-04-13 | Lost |
| 963 | 1209 | 20% | 2010-03-20 | Won |
| 1010 | 866 | 70% | 2009-03-21 | Won |
| 1111 | 1096 | 52% | 2006-11-20 | Won |
| 897 | 1242 | 12% | 2006-10-28 | Won |
| 1033 | 1170 | 31% | 2006-08-30 | Won |
| 1128 | 1113 | 52% | 2006-08-12 | Lost |
| 1285 | 1310 | 46% | 2006-06-05 | Won |
| 1037 | 1212 | 27% | 2006-05-27 | Won |
| 1084 | 950 | 68% | 2006-05-27 | Lost |
| 1128 | 1082 | 57% | 2006-04-09 | Won |
| 1091 | 1098 | 49% | 2006-04-01 | Won |
| 969 | 1264 | 15% | 2006-03-11 | Lost |
| 1098 | 1096 | 50% | 2006-03-07 | Won |
| 963 | 1122 | 29% | 2006-03-04 | Won |
| 1272 | 1029 | 80% | 2006-01-01 | Won |
| 1131 | 1131 | 50% | | Won |
Attacking (29 wins) average ELOs: 1071.6 vs 1052.2 has a 52.8% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).