Escape from Derna
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 32 (5 on the archive and 27 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (British): 23
Defender wins (German): 9
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 986 | 1013 | 46% | 2020-02-08 | Lost |
| 1005 | 1052 | 43% | 2018-03-29 | Lost |
| 1087 | 1041 | 57% | 2012-09-08 | Lost |
| 949 | 1039 | 37% | 2012-08-25 | Lost |
| 1156 | 1118 | 55% | 1995-06-29 | Lost |
Attacking (0 wins) average ELOs: 1036.6 vs 1052.6 has a 47.7% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).