Confusion Reigns
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 244 (49 on the archive and 195 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 140
Defender wins (German): 102
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 2
Attacker wins (American): 1
Defender wins (German): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1156 | 899 | 81% | 2026-06-02 | Won |
| 1022 | 1060 | 45% | 2024-02-20 | Won |
| 1036 | 990 | 57% | 2024-01-07 | Lost |
| 984 | 994 | 49% | 2023-08-30 | Lost |
| 906 | 1120 | 23% | 2023-04-22 | Won |
| 1012 | 971 | 56% | 2020-07-04 | Won |
| 1012 | 971 | 56% | 2020-07-04 | Won |
| 820 | 1113 | 16% | 2019-10-17 | Lost |
| 1008 | 1007 | 50% | 2019-07-26 | Won |
| 1040 | 1049 | 49% | 2019-05-13 | Won |
| 1226 | 1008 | 78% | 2016-10-07 | Won |
| 954 | 1097 | 31% | 2016-09-12 | Lost |
| 972 | 956 | 52% | 2016-08-21 | Won |
| 1030 | 964 | 59% | 2016-05-07 | Won |
| 1172 | 1172 | 50% | 2015-12-10 | Won |
| 984 | 1008 | 47% | 2015-08-28 | Won |
| 999 | 1038 | 44% | 2014-08-16 | Won |
| 1052 | 934 | 66% | 2014-06-07 | Won |
| 1107 | 943 | 72% | 2014-05-25 | Lost |
| 786 | 1083 | 15% | 2014-01-18 | Lost |
| 1083 | 786 | 85% | 2013-12-08 | Won |
| 1019 | 1083 | 41% | 2013-10-01 | Won |
| 1083 | 1065 | 53% | 2013-09-26 | Lost |
| 958 | 1065 | 35% | 2013-09-13 | Lost |
| 1060 | 999 | 59% | 2013-04-28 | Won |
| 1060 | 999 | 59% | 2012-12-31 | Won |
| 1080 | 1155 | 39% | 2012-12-02 | Lost |
| 951 | 890 | 59% | 2012-11-13 | Won |
| 951 | 862 | 63% | 2012-11-13 | Won |
| 999 | 1060 | 41% | 2012-10-01 | Lost |
| 959 | 880 | 61% | 2011-09-14 | Won |
| 1177 | 1036 | 69% | 2010-03-18 | Lost |
| 1025 | 1027 | 50% | 2009-11-16 | Won |
| 1002 | 1127 | 33% | 2009-07-30 | Lost |
| 906 | 1138 | 21% | 2009-02-27 | Lost |
| 1029 | 1065 | 45% | 2009-01-01 | Lost |
| 948 | 956 | 49% | 2008-05-14 | Lost |
| 1007 | 1047 | 44% | 2007-04-22 | Lost |
| 1007 | 1026 | 47% | 2007-04-14 | Won |
| 1132 | 1233 | 36% | 2007-01-05 | Lost |
| 928 | 1151 | 22% | 2005-01-15 | Won |
| 935 | 862 | 60% | 2005-01-14 | Won |
| 1009 | 1096 | 38% | 2004-11-18 | Lost |
| 1003 | 1034 | 46% | 2004-08-10 | Won |
| 1082 | 1096 | 48% | 2004-06-17 | Lost |
| 1127 | 986 | 69% | 2002-09-07 | Won |
| 1006 | 1096 | 37% | 2002-06-29 | Lost |
| 1342 | 1022 | 86% | 1999-11-23 | Won |
| 1113 | 911 | 76% | 1994-04-10 | Lost |
Attacking (28 wins) average ELOs: 1025.7 vs 1023.1 has a 50.38% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).