The Citadel
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 251 (49 on the archive and 202 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 107
Defender wins (Russian): 143
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (German): 0
Defender wins (Russian): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 988 | 855 | 68% | 2026-04-25 | Won |
| 971 | 1012 | 44% | 2026-04-18 | Lost |
| 1228 | 1228 | 50% | 2025-04-17 | Won |
| 993 | 1098 | 35% | 2025-03-15 | Won |
| 995 | 1083 | 38% | 2025-01-30 | Lost |
| 1185 | 1185 | 50% | 2024-01-14 | Won |
| 937 | 964 | 46% | 2022-02-13 | Lost |
| 964 | 937 | 54% | 2022-01-26 | Won |
| 1073 | 1107 | 45% | 2021-08-01 | Won |
| 1098 | 1010 | 62% | 2020-08-28 | Lost |
| 879 | 1098 | 22% | 2019-01-10 | Lost |
| 940 | 974 | 45% | 2018-11-02 | Lost |
| 999 | 1020 | 47% | 2018-07-13 | Lost |
| 999 | 1020 | 47% | 2018-07-13 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1032 | 54% | 2018-05-30 | Won |
| 964 | 1010 | 43% | 2018-02-19 | Lost |
| 1097 | 955 | 69% | 2017-10-20 | Lost |
| 1030 | 1210 | 26% | 2017-10-09 | Lost |
| 1186 | 1140 | 57% | 2017-10-08 | Lost |
| 1083 | 950 | 68% | 2017-09-23 | Won |
| 983 | 996 | 48% | 2017-07-08 | Lost |
| 957 | 983 | 46% | 2017-06-30 | Won |
| 1135 | 898 | 80% | 2016-10-21 | Won |
| 958 | 1210 | 19% | 2016-06-25 | Lost |
| 1210 | 983 | 79% | 2014-09-01 | Lost |
| 951 | 1083 | 32% | 2014-07-20 | Lost |
| 1098 | 975 | 67% | 2014-06-06 | Won |
| 943 | 1107 | 28% | 2013-04-29 | Won |
| 951 | 919 | 55% | 2012-11-19 | Won |
| 1071 | 1051 | 53% | 2012-10-04 | Won |
| 1098 | 948 | 70% | 2012-09-01 | Won |
| 1215 | 1070 | 70% | 2012-07-16 | Lost |
| 885 | 853 | 55% | 2012-01-30 | Lost |
| 983 | 955 | 54% | 2008-12-27 | Won |
| 1286 | 1434 | 30% | 2008-02-10 | Lost |
| 919 | 1000 | 39% | 2007-12-01 | Lost |
| 983 | 957 | 54% | 2007-02-17 | Won |
| 832 | 832 | 50% | 2006-06-22 | Won |
| 1151 | 928 | 78% | 2005-01-12 | Won |
| 1066 | 982 | 62% | 2004-10-10 | Won |
| 1127 | 1122 | 51% | 2004-08-21 | Won |
| 1019 | 1110 | 37% | 2002-03-29 | Lost |
| 940 | 1051 | 35% | 1998-01-25 | Won |
| 1150 | 1263 | 34% | 1997-11-09 | Won |
| 800 | 1140 | 12% | 1997-04-01 | Won |
| 1113 | 881 | 79% | 1994-04-30 | Lost |
| 996 | 984 | 52% | 1992-05-05 | Lost |
| 1060 | 984 | 61% | 1990-04-25 | Lost |
| 1039 | 1000 | 56% | | Lost |
Attacking (24 wins) average ELOs: 1032.4 vs 1032.4 has a 50% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).