To the Square
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 132 (25 on the archive and 107 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 72
Defender wins (German): 60
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1177 | 27% | 2025-03-15 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 981 | 53% | 2021-12-13 | | Won |
| 992 | 967 | 54% | 2021-01-26 | | Lost |
| 1172 | 1057 | 66% | 2020-01-12 | | Won |
| 973 | 1134 | 28% | 2019-07-29 | | Won |
| 968 | 1072 | 35% | 2018-12-06 | | Won |
| 981 | 1000 | 47% | 2018-02-15 | | Lost |
| 928 | 1074 | 30% | 2015-12-15 | | Lost |
| 1074 | 928 | 70% | 2015-07-24 | | Won |
| 1230 | 1000 | 79% | 2014-12-28 | | Won |
| 1108 | 1000 | 65% | 2012-12-20 | | Lost |
| 1136 | 1163 | 46% | 2011-09-20 | | Lost |
| 921 | 1000 | 39% | 2011-09-14 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1015 | 48% | 2011-03-05 | | Won |
| 1045 | 1000 | 56% | 2010-05-14 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1131 | 32% | 2009-08-06 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1242 | 20% | 2009-07-26 | | Lost |
| 933 | 1183 | 19% | 2006-10-27 | | Lost |
| 1058 | 1000 | 58% | 2005-11-26 | | Won |
| 1051 | 1008 | 56% | 2005-01-02 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1101 | 36% | 2002-06-22 | | Won |
| 1101 | 1000 | 64% | 2001-06-02 | | Lost |
| 1059 | 1000 | 58% | 1998-01-17 | | Lost |
| 1150 | 1000 | 70% | 1994-03-09 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1073 | 40% | 1992-04-29 | | Won |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1035.2 vs 1052.2 has a 47.55% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).