The Fugitives
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 256 (39 on the archive and 217 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 102
Defender wins (Russian): 151
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 2
Attacker wins (German): 1
Defender wins (Russian): 1
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (German): 1
Defender wins (Russian): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 971 | 1012 | 44% | 2026-05-10 | Lost |
| 981 | 1050 | 40% | 2025-09-07 | Lost |
| 1008 | 1079 | 40% | 2025-02-05 | Lost |
| 1092 | 1035 | 58% | 2024-02-24 | Won |
| 865 | 865 | 50% | 2024-02-17 | Won |
| 951 | 937 | 52% | 2021-08-12 | Lost |
| 1172 | 924 | 81% | 2021-06-20 | Won |
| 924 | 1172 | 19% | 2021-05-20 | Lost |
| 1057 | 1035 | 53% | 2020-11-11 | Lost |
| 951 | 1018 | 40% | 2019-07-28 | Won |
| 1028 | 986 | 56% | 2018-07-17 | Lost |
| 892 | 1127 | 21% | 2017-10-15 | Lost |
| 1017 | 1025 | 49% | 2017-10-02 | Lost |
| 958 | 1079 | 33% | 2016-11-16 | Lost |
| 961 | 1038 | 39% | 2015-11-25 | Lost |
| 1135 | 1087 | 57% | 2014-07-02 | Won |
| 1114 | 890 | 78% | 2013-10-26 | Won |
| 1127 | 862 | 82% | 2013-10-26 | Won |
| 1151 | 1079 | 60% | 2013-10-12 | Won |
| 975 | 1050 | 39% | 2013-08-14 | Won |
| 900 | 1117 | 22% | 2013-02-15 | Lost |
| 959 | 880 | 61% | 2012-12-10 | Lost |
| 995 | 951 | 56% | 2012-11-20 | Won |
| 942 | 1107 | 28% | 2012-08-20 | Lost |
| 1146 | 914 | 79% | 2011-10-02 | Won |
| 998 | 1045 | 43% | 2011-06-25 | Won |
| 1055 | 1030 | 54% | 2010-10-31 | Lost |
| 1056 | 933 | 67% | 2008-08-03 | Won |
| 1127 | 1029 | 64% | 2006-11-07 | Won |
| 943 | 1011 | 40% | 2006-10-12 | Lost |
| 1050 | 997 | 58% | 2004-12-05 | Won |
| 1150 | 1156 | 49% | 2004-10-24 | Won |
| 1263 | 1292 | 46% | 1999-02-07 | Won |
| 1167 | 1073 | 63% | 1998-08-01 | Lost |
| 894 | 1077 | 26% | 1998-05-03 | Lost |
| 1102 | 1109 | 49% | 1996-08-13 | Lost |
| 1076 | 911 | 72% | 1994-03-02 | Lost |
| 946 | 984 | 45% | 1992-04-11 | Lost |
| 1078 | 1078 | 50% | | Lost |
Attacking (17 wins) average ELOs: 1030.2 vs 1026.8 has a 50.49% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).