The Fugitives
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 254 (39 on the archive and 218 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 102
Defender wins (Russian): 152
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 2
Attacker wins (German): 1
Defender wins (Russian): 1
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (German): 1
Defender wins (Russian): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 977 | 992 | 48% | 2026-05-10 | A | Lost |
| 981 | 1000 | 47% | 2025-09-07 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1085 | 38% | 2025-02-05 | | Lost |
| 1092 | 1035 | 58% | 2024-02-24 | | Won |
| 1000 | 865 | 69% | 2024-02-17 | D | Won |
| 966 | 1000 | 45% | 2021-08-12 | | Lost |
| 1172 | 924 | 81% | 2021-06-20 | | Won |
| 924 | 1172 | 19% | 2021-05-20 | | Lost |
| 1057 | 1035 | 53% | 2020-11-11 | | Lost |
| 966 | 1000 | 45% | 2019-07-28 | | Won |
| 1029 | 966 | 59% | 2018-07-17 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1174 | 27% | 2017-10-15 | | Lost |
| 1088 | 951 | 69% | 2017-10-02 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1085 | 38% | 2016-11-16 | | Lost |
| 962 | 1039 | 39% | 2015-11-25 | | Lost |
| 1135 | 1000 | 69% | 2014-07-02 | | Won |
| 1000 | 891 | 65% | 2013-10-26 | | Won |
| 1127 | 862 | 82% | 2013-10-26 | | Won |
| 1151 | 1085 | 59% | 2013-10-12 | A | Won |
| 977 | 1000 | 47% | 2013-08-14 | | Won |
| 900 | 1000 | 36% | 2013-02-15 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 880 | 67% | 2012-12-10 | | Lost |
| 996 | 951 | 56% | 2012-11-20 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1108 | 35% | 2012-08-20 | | Lost |
| 1147 | 927 | 78% | 2011-10-02 | | Won |
| 1006 | 1045 | 44% | 2011-06-25 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1037 | 45% | 2010-10-31 | | Lost |
| 1056 | 933 | 67% | 2008-08-03 | | Won |
| 1127 | 1000 | 68% | 2006-11-07 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1011 | 48% | 2006-10-12 | | Lost |
| 974 | 1070 | 37% | 2004-12-05 | | Won |
| 1151 | 1000 | 70% | 2004-10-24 | | Won |
| 1263 | 1000 | 82% | 1999-02-07 | | Won |
| 1167 | 1073 | 63% | 1998-08-01 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1078 | 39% | 1998-05-03 | | Lost |
| 1102 | 1134 | 45% | 1996-08-13 | | Lost |
| 1159 | 1000 | 71% | 1994-03-02 | | Lost |
| 959 | 1000 | 44% | 1992-04-11 | | Lost |
| 1086 | 1000 | 62% | | | Lost |
Attacking (17 wins) average ELOs: 1043.5 vs 1010.5 has a 54.74% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).