The Fugitives
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 246 (34 on the archive and 212 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 98
Defender wins (Russian): 146
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (German): 1
Defender wins (Russian): 0
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (German): 1
Defender wins (Russian): 0
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1158 | 982 | 73% | 2024-02-24 | Won |
| 884 | 884 | 50% | 2024-02-17 | Won |
| 931 | 965 | 45% | 2021-08-12 | Lost |
| 1165 | 924 | 80% | 2021-06-20 | Won |
| 924 | 1165 | 20% | 2021-05-20 | Lost |
| 1062 | 1023 | 56% | 2020-11-11 | Lost |
| 931 | 1020 | 37% | 2019-07-28 | Won |
| 1009 | 927 | 62% | 2018-07-17 | Lost |
| 891 | 1015 | 33% | 2017-10-15 | Lost |
| 1025 | 1008 | 52% | 2017-10-02 | Lost |
| 961 | 1116 | 29% | 2016-11-16 | Lost |
| 1144 | 1087 | 58% | 2014-07-02 | Won |
| 1111 | 889 | 78% | 2013-10-26 | Won |
| 1115 | 863 | 81% | 2013-10-26 | Won |
| 1163 | 1116 | 57% | 2013-10-12 | Won |
| 975 | 1014 | 44% | 2013-08-14 | Won |
| 900 | 945 | 44% | 2013-02-15 | Lost |
| 924 | 911 | 52% | 2012-12-10 | Lost |
| 1032 | 951 | 61% | 2012-11-20 | Won |
| 944 | 1094 | 30% | 2012-08-20 | Lost |
| 982 | 983 | 50% | 2011-10-02 | Won |
| 1011 | 1044 | 45% | 2011-06-25 | Won |
| 1056 | 1031 | 54% | 2010-10-31 | Lost |
| 1045 | 934 | 65% | 2008-08-03 | Won |
| 1099 | 1029 | 60% | 2006-11-07 | Won |
| 943 | 1010 | 40% | 2006-10-12 | Lost |
| 1038 | 958 | 61% | 2004-12-05 | Won |
| 1014 | 1141 | 32% | 2004-10-16 | Lost |
| 1074 | 1100 | 46% | 1998-08-01 | Lost |
| 893 | 1069 | 27% | 1998-05-03 | Lost |
| 1151 | 1119 | 55% | 1996-08-13 | Lost |
| 1129 | 911 | 78% | 1994-03-02 | Lost |
| 944 | 983 | 44% | 1992-04-11 | Lost |
| 1163 | 1163 | 50% | | Lost |
Attacking (15 wins) average ELOs: 1023.3 vs 1011 has a 51.76% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).