First Dance
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 58 (17 on the archive and 41 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 28
Defender wins (French): 26
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 4
Attacker wins (German): 1
Defender wins (French): 3
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 960 | 1053 | 37% | 2026-07-03 | Lost |
| 960 | 1113 | 29% | 2026-07-03 | Lost |
| 1243 | 1243 | 50% | 2026-06-28 | Won |
| 939 | 1017 | 39% | 2026-05-01 | Won |
| 1042 | 1217 | 27% | 2026-04-11 | Won |
| 1199 | 1228 | 46% | 2026-04-06 | Lost |
| 1226 | 1217 | 51% | 2026-03-26 | Won |
| 1199 | 1036 | 72% | 2026-03-21 | Lost |
| 1039 | 1126 | 38% | 2026-03-18 | Lost |
| 1143 | 1039 | 65% | 2026-03-13 | Won |
| 937 | 956 | 47% | 2026-03-08 | Won |
| 999 | 1253 | 19% | 2026-03-06 | Lost |
| 1152 | 1152 | 50% | 2026-02-20 | Lost |
| 1243 | 1044 | 76% | 2026-01-30 | Won |
| 1127 | 1180 | 42% | 2025-12-06 | Won |
| 1040 | 1052 | 48% | 2025-10-19 | Won |
| 986 | 945 | 56% | 2024-10-07 | Won |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1084.4 vs 1110.1 has a 46.31% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).