First Dance
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 65 (22 on the archive and 47 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 31
Defender wins (French): 34
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 4
Attacker wins (German): 1
Defender wins (French): 3
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1025 | 1229 | 24% | 2026-08-20 | | Lost |
| 894 | 943 | 43% | 2026-08-18 | | Lost |
| 1211 | 1241 | 46% | 2026-08-10 | | Lost |
| 1009 | 1031 | 47% | 2026-08-01 | | Lost |
| 1241 | 1000 | 80% | 2026-07-24 | | Lost |
| 1019 | 1000 | 53% | 2026-07-03 | A | Lost |
| 1019 | 1031 | 48% | 2026-07-03 | A | Lost |
| 1164 | 1000 | 72% | 2026-06-28 | | Won |
| 939 | 1017 | 39% | 2026-05-01 | | Won |
| 1139 | 1000 | 69% | 2026-04-11 | A | Won |
| 1192 | 1228 | 45% | 2026-04-06 | | Lost |
| 1188 | 1000 | 75% | 2026-03-26 | | Won |
| 1192 | 1027 | 72% | 2026-03-21 | | Lost |
| 1051 | 1126 | 39% | 2026-03-18 | | Lost |
| 1099 | 1063 | 55% | 2026-03-13 | | Won |
| 922 | 966 | 44% | 2026-03-08 | | Won |
| 1029 | 1253 | 22% | 2026-03-06 | A | Lost |
| 1000 | 1152 | 29% | 2026-02-20 | | Lost |
| 1164 | 1045 | 66% | 2026-01-30 | | Won |
| 1100 | 1021 | 61% | 2025-12-06 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1082 | 38% | 2025-10-19 | | Won |
| 975 | 1000 | 46% | 2024-10-07 | | Won |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1071.5 vs 1066.1 has a 50.77% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).