Rough Recess
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 36 (13 on the archive and 23 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 16
Defender wins (German): 20
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 973 | 990 | 48% | 2025-12-20 | Won |
| 989 | 998 | 49% | 2025-12-11 | Lost |
| 1113 | 1159 | 43% | 2025-11-26 | Won |
| 1052 | 934 | 66% | 2025-10-09 | Lost |
| 1070 | 1230 | 28% | 2025-09-10 | Lost |
| 940 | 940 | 50% | 2025-09-05 | Won |
| 820 | 979 | 29% | 2025-08-12 | Lost |
| 1038 | 977 | 59% | 2025-08-10 | Won |
| 1052 | 1052 | 50% | 2025-08-05 | Lost |
| 1034 | 890 | 70% | 2025-07-15 | Lost |
| 947 | 945 | 50% | 2025-06-21 | Won |
| 868 | 983 | 34% | 2025-06-19 | Won |
| 988 | 855 | 68% | 2025-04-26 | Lost |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 991.1 vs 994.8 has a 49.47% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).