Gun & Run
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 24 (11 on the archive and 14 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese): 11
Defender wins (Commonwealth (Gurkha/British)): 13
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Japanese): 1
Defender wins (Commonwealth (Gurkha/British)): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1211 | 23% | 2026-08-28 | | Lost |
| 960 | 1076 | 34% | 2026-08-28 | | Lost |
| 887 | 1048 | 28% | 2026-08-28 | | Lost |
| 1115 | 1289 | 27% | 2025-08-14 | | Lost |
| 984 | 1136 | 29% | 2025-03-23 | | Won |
| 1310 | 1242 | 60% | 2025-02-18 | | Won |
| 1177 | 989 | 75% | 2024-12-01 | D | Won |
| 1049 | 1056 | 49% | 2024-10-10 | | Lost |
| 1153 | 1029 | 67% | 2024-10-02 | | Won |
| 1133 | 1006 | 68% | 2024-08-20 | | Lost |
| 1154 | 1000 | 71% | 2024-08-06 | | Won |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1083.8 vs 1098.4 has a 47.91% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).