Buckley's Chance
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 47 (11 on the archive and 36 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese): 22
Defender wins (Australian): 25
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1021 | 1127 | 35% | 2025-12-15 | Lost |
| 913 | 926 | 48% | 2025-04-26 | Lost |
| 1089 | 1120 | 46% | 2024-03-01 | Won |
| 1089 | 944 | 70% | 2024-01-27 | Won |
| 979 | 1022 | 44% | 2024-01-07 | Won |
| 969 | 1034 | 41% | 2023-12-02 | Lost |
| 928 | 891 | 55% | 2023-12-02 | Won |
| 1002 | 1263 | 18% | 2023-11-11 | Lost |
| 1127 | 1079 | 57% | 2023-11-04 | Lost |
| 1053 | 1188 | 31% | 2023-09-07 | Won |
| 1215 | 1098 | 66% | 2023-08-20 | Lost |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1035 vs 1062.9 has a 45.99% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).