Raff's Dilemma
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 50 (14 on the archive and 36 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 20
Defender wins (German): 30
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1042 | 1017 | 54% | 2025-12-17 | | Lost |
| 965 | 1133 | 28% | 2025-11-05 | | Lost |
| 969 | 1000 | 46% | 2025-08-06 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 989 | 52% | 2025-08-06 | | Lost |
| 856 | 984 | 32% | 2025-07-17 | | Lost |
| 856 | 984 | 32% | 2025-07-10 | | Lost |
| 1171 | 1219 | 43% | 2025-06-05 | | Won |
| 997 | 1009 | 48% | 2024-09-19 | | Lost |
| 977 | 1090 | 34% | 2024-06-05 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 905 | 63% | 2024-06-02 | | Won |
| 1145 | 1000 | 70% | 2024-02-20 | | Won |
| 974 | 1078 | 35% | 2023-05-27 | | Lost |
| 966 | 1000 | 45% | 2023-05-08 | | Lost |
| 1209 | 1000 | 77% | 2023-04-16 | | Won |
Attacking (4 wins) average ELOs: 1009.1 vs 1029.1 has a 47.11% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).