Hot Toddy
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 46 (17 on the archive and 30 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 20
Defender wins (British/American): 26
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (German): 0
Defender wins (British/American): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 941 | 58% | 2025-03-16 | | Won |
| 991 | 1000 | 49% | 2025-02-09 | | Won |
| 948 | 1000 | 43% | 2024-03-02 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1056 | 42% | 2023-11-05 | | Won |
| 1150 | 1000 | 70% | 2023-10-03 | | Won |
| 1108 | 1000 | 65% | 2023-08-16 | | Won |
| 1171 | 1219 | 43% | 2023-05-24 | | Won |
| 1012 | 1076 | 41% | 2023-04-26 | | Won |
| 938 | 1000 | 41% | 2023-03-26 | | Won |
| 981 | 987 | 49% | 2023-03-25 | | Won |
| 1059 | 1289 | 21% | 2023-03-17 | | Won |
| 1064 | 1064 | 50% | 2023-03-02 | | Won |
| 1051 | 1008 | 56% | 2023-02-11 | A | Lost |
| 861 | 1000 | 31% | 2023-01-15 | | Lost |
| 1115 | 1045 | 60% | 2023-01-13 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 970 | 54% | 2023-01-13 | | Won |
| 1056 | 1120 | 41% | 2023-01-12 | | Won |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1029.7 vs 1045.6 has a 47.72% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).