Breakthrough in the Arctic
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 81 (26 on the archive and 55 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 39
Defender wins (German): 38
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 2
Attacker wins (Russian): 1
Defender wins (German): 1
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Russian): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1028 | 1146 | 34% | 2025-11-28 | Won |
| 1196 | 880 | 86% | 2025-11-28 | Won |
| 1029 | 982 | 57% | 2025-11-28 | Lost |
| 1064 | 1083 | 47% | 2025-09-22 | Lost |
| 1032 | 1035 | 50% | 2025-03-28 | Won |
| 1174 | 1163 | 52% | 2024-08-10 | Lost |
| 1018 | 990 | 54% | 2024-05-11 | Won |
| 1178 | 894 | 84% | 2024-03-04 | Lost |
| 1011 | 1090 | 39% | 2024-03-02 | Won |
| 1029 | 1130 | 36% | 2024-03-01 | Won |
| 1122 | 1153 | 46% | 2024-01-12 | Lost |
| 966 | 1019 | 42% | 2023-12-29 | Lost |
| 969 | 1142 | 27% | 2023-10-22 | Lost |
| 989 | 1010 | 47% | 2023-07-28 | Won |
| 1067 | 1150 | 38% | 2023-07-28 | Lost |
| 1281 | 895 | 90% | 2023-07-08 | Won |
| 1122 | 1274 | 29% | 2023-06-10 | Tied |
| 1071 | 992 | 61% | 2023-03-22 | Won |
| 986 | 1060 | 40% | 2023-03-20 | Won |
| 999 | 1274 | 17% | 2023-03-17 | Lost |
| 1419 | 1020 | 91% | 2023-03-07 | Won |
| 1100 | 1000 | 64% | 2023-03-02 | Won |
| 756 | 1281 | 5% | 2023-02-22 | Lost |
| 1178 | 986 | 75% | 2023-02-16 | Lost |
| 1281 | 756 | 95% | 2023-02-13 | Won |
| 1274 | 1135 | 69% | 2023-01-11 | Won |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1090 vs 1059.2 has a 54.41% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).