Breakthrough in the Arctic
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 72 (22 on the archive and 50 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 36
Defender wins (German): 32
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 2
Attacker wins (Russian): 1
Defender wins (German): 1
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Russian): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1055 | 1035 | 53% | 2025-03-28 | Won |
| 1122 | 1142 | 47% | 2024-08-10 | Lost |
| 1046 | 985 | 59% | 2024-05-11 | Won |
| 1170 | 898 | 83% | 2024-03-04 | Lost |
| 1014 | 1100 | 38% | 2024-03-02 | Won |
| 1080 | 1130 | 43% | 2024-03-01 | Won |
| 1110 | 1136 | 46% | 2024-01-12 | Lost |
| 934 | 1009 | 39% | 2023-12-29 | Lost |
| 969 | 1141 | 27% | 2023-10-22 | Lost |
| 1166 | 1017 | 70% | 2023-07-28 | Won |
| 1158 | 1264 | 35% | 2023-07-28 | Lost |
| 1266 | 922 | 88% | 2023-07-08 | Won |
| 1121 | 1310 | 25% | 2023-06-10 | Tied |
| 950 | 1084 | 32% | 2023-03-22 | Won |
| 1076 | 998 | 61% | 2023-03-20 | Won |
| 1011 | 1310 | 15% | 2023-03-17 | Lost |
| 1412 | 1029 | 90% | 2023-03-07 | Won |
| 1095 | 970 | 67% | 2023-03-02 | Won |
| 748 | 1266 | 5% | 2023-02-22 | Lost |
| 1170 | 977 | 75% | 2023-02-16 | Lost |
| 1266 | 748 | 95% | 2023-02-13 | Won |
| 1310 | 1109 | 76% | 2023-01-11 | Won |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1102.2 vs 1071.8 has a 54.37% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).