Goats to Lure the Tiger
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 21 (7 on the archive and 14 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German/Italian): 12
Defender wins (Free French): 9
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 905 | 63% | 2026-03-22 | | Won |
| 1056 | 1242 | 26% | 2025-06-27 | | Won |
| 692 | 1059 | 11% | 2025-06-13 | | Lost |
| 1028 | 1050 | 47% | 2024-04-21 | | Lost |
| 1156 | 1000 | 71% | 2023-04-03 | | Lost |
| 1059 | 954 | 65% | 2023-03-19 | | Won |
| 1219 | 1000 | 78% | 2023-01-31 | | Won |
Attacking (4 wins) average ELOs: 1030 vs 1030 has a 50% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).