Fresh Grist
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 43 (14 on the archive and 29 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese): 16
Defender wins (Chinese): 27
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 951 | 951 | 50% | 2024-10-07 | Lost |
| 1112 | 1098 | 52% | 2023-07-16 | Lost |
| 973 | 951 | 53% | 2023-03-24 | Won |
| 1099 | 1064 | 55% | 2022-12-17 | Lost |
| 1041 | 1075 | 45% | 2022-05-20 | Lost |
| 1133 | 1028 | 65% | 2022-04-21 | Lost |
| 951 | 1063 | 34% | 2022-04-10 | Lost |
| 1256 | 741 | 95% | 2022-02-20 | Won |
| 1090 | 1139 | 43% | 2022-01-10 | Won |
| 1040 | 1026 | 52% | 2021-11-28 | Lost |
| 1178 | 1135 | 56% | 2021-11-19 | Lost |
| 1211 | 1100 | 65% | 2021-10-12 | Won |
| 1256 | 1218 | 55% | 2021-06-19 | Lost |
| 1030 | 1104 | 40% | | Lost |
Attacking (4 wins) average ELOs: 1094.4 vs 1049.5 has a 56.42% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).