Three Bars of Chocolate
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 34 (13 on the archive and 21 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 17
Defender wins (German): 16
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 940 | 1000 | 41% | 2026-03-01 | | Won |
| 941 | 1000 | 42% | 2024-11-17 | | Won |
| 1111 | 1089 | 53% | 2023-06-17 | | Lost |
| 1133 | 962 | 73% | 2023-02-07 | | Won |
| 1197 | 1000 | 76% | 2022-10-02 | | Won |
| 949 | 1013 | 41% | 2022-09-12 | | Lost |
| 949 | 1013 | 41% | 2022-09-08 | | Won |
| 1000 | 891 | 65% | 2022-03-27 | | Won |
| 891 | 1009 | 34% | 2022-02-15 | | Lost |
| 1007 | 913 | 63% | 2022-01-30 | | Won |
| 1219 | 1171 | 57% | 2022-01-20 | | Lost |
| 892 | 1000 | 35% | 2021-10-26 | | Tied |
| 1000 | 1189 | 25% | 2021-03-19 | | Won |
Attacking (8 wins) average ELOs: 1017.6 vs 1019.2 has a 49.77% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).