Three Bars of Chocolate
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 31 (12 on the archive and 19 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 19
Defender wins (German): 11
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 929 | 929 | 50% | 2024-11-17 | Won |
| 973 | 1017 | 44% | 2023-06-17 | Lost |
| 1058 | 948 | 65% | 2023-02-07 | Won |
| 1168 | 1191 | 47% | 2022-10-02 | Won |
| 970 | 995 | 46% | 2022-09-12 | Lost |
| 970 | 995 | 46% | 2022-09-08 | Won |
| 918 | 882 | 55% | 2022-03-27 | Won |
| 882 | 1050 | 28% | 2022-02-15 | Lost |
| 1128 | 913 | 78% | 2022-01-30 | Won |
| 1310 | 1109 | 76% | 2022-01-20 | Lost |
| 877 | 748 | 68% | 2021-10-26 | Tied |
| 1141 | 1141 | 50% | 2021-03-19 | Won |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1027 vs 993.2 has a 54.85% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).