Ultimate Treachery
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 29 (13 on the archive and 16 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese): 16
Defender wins (French): 13
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 984 | 1218 | 21% | 2026-04-09 | Won |
| 1152 | 1005 | 70% | 2025-08-24 | Won |
| 1231 | 1227 | 51% | 2024-06-14 | Lost |
| 1032 | 1010 | 53% | 2024-04-01 | Lost |
| 1090 | 1055 | 55% | 2022-08-04 | Lost |
| 1102 | 910 | 75% | 2021-05-03 | Won |
| 1087 | 1143 | 42% | 2020-10-27 | Won |
| 1216 | 1030 | 74% | 2020-10-10 | Lost |
| 1182 | 1156 | 54% | 2020-05-03 | Won |
| 1030 | 1165 | 31% | 2020-03-01 | Lost |
| 961 | 965 | 49% | 2020-03-01 | Lost |
| 1216 | 1030 | 74% | 2020-02-08 | Won |
| 1216 | 1030 | 74% | 2020-02-08 | Won |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1115.3 vs 1072.6 has a 56.11% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).