Feast Day
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 100 (33 on the archive and 67 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Canadian): 45
Defender wins (German): 55
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 974 | 1298 | 13% | 2026-08-28 | | Lost |
| 1183 | 1177 | 51% | 2026-03-08 | | Lost |
| 1183 | 933 | 81% | 2026-03-02 | | Won |
| 949 | 1000 | 43% | 2025-09-29 | | Lost |
| 1242 | 1142 | 64% | 2025-09-05 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1077 | 39% | 2025-05-16 | | Won |
| 904 | 1000 | 37% | 2025-04-25 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 861 | 69% | 2025-04-25 | | Lost |
| 981 | 1000 | 47% | 2025-03-21 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1077 | 39% | 2025-02-09 | | Lost |
| 1011 | 829 | 74% | 2024-08-03 | | Won |
| 1183 | 949 | 79% | 2024-06-21 | | Lost |
| 1058 | 960 | 64% | 2024-06-21 | | Won |
| 1065 | 1120 | 42% | 2023-08-04 | | Won |
| 1057 | 1007 | 57% | 2020-12-13 | | Lost |
| 981 | 1000 | 47% | 2020-11-29 | | Lost |
| 1029 | 1000 | 54% | 2020-11-28 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1010 | 49% | 2020-11-19 | | Won |
| 1076 | 1110 | 45% | 2020-10-10 | | Won |
| 1076 | 1150 | 40% | 2020-10-10 | | Won |
| 1141 | 1034 | 65% | 2020-05-31 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1088 | 38% | 2020-05-10 | | Lost |
| 1182 | 989 | 75% | 2020-05-07 | | Lost |
| 979 | 996 | 48% | 2020-04-26 | | Lost |
| 981 | 1000 | 47% | 2020-04-25 | | Lost |
| 1150 | 1000 | 70% | 2020-04-07 | | Won |
| 1171 | 1086 | 62% | 2020-04-02 | | Won |
| 780 | 1141 | 11% | 2020-03-11 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1132 | 32% | 2020-02-27 | | Won |
| 1051 | 1008 | 56% | 2020-02-18 | | Lost |
| 1014 | 1000 | 52% | 2020-01-18 | | Lost |
| 983 | 1218 | 21% | 2020-01-17 | | Lost |
| 1014 | 1147 | 32% | 2020-01-17 | | Won |
Attacking (15 wins) average ELOs: 1042.4 vs 1046.6 has a 49.39% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).