Feast Day
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 97 (31 on the archive and 66 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Canadian): 44
Defender wins (German): 53
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1105 | 980 | 67% | 2026-03-02 | Won |
| 982 | 982 | 50% | 2025-09-29 | Lost |
| 1263 | 1143 | 67% | 2025-09-05 | Won |
| 1056 | 1066 | 49% | 2025-05-16 | Won |
| 878 | 991 | 34% | 2025-04-25 | Lost |
| 873 | 896 | 47% | 2025-04-25 | Lost |
| 1026 | 1043 | 48% | 2025-03-21 | Won |
| 1066 | 1066 | 50% | 2025-02-09 | Lost |
| 1024 | 844 | 74% | 2024-08-03 | Won |
| 1105 | 982 | 67% | 2024-06-21 | Lost |
| 1060 | 950 | 65% | 2024-06-21 | Won |
| 1078 | 933 | 70% | 2023-08-04 | Won |
| 1057 | 1041 | 52% | 2020-12-13 | Lost |
| 1026 | 981 | 56% | 2020-11-29 | Lost |
| 1065 | 972 | 63% | 2020-11-28 | Lost |
| 920 | 1010 | 37% | 2020-11-19 | Won |
| 1027 | 1191 | 28% | 2020-10-10 | Won |
| 1027 | 1224 | 24% | 2020-10-10 | Won |
| 1140 | 1034 | 65% | 2020-05-31 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2020-05-10 | Lost |
| 1218 | 985 | 79% | 2020-05-07 | Lost |
| 919 | 1058 | 31% | 2020-04-26 | Lost |
| 1026 | 957 | 60% | 2020-04-25 | Lost |
| 1243 | 980 | 82% | 2020-04-07 | Won |
| 1157 | 1087 | 60% | 2020-04-02 | Won |
| 733 | 1140 | 9% | 2020-03-11 | Lost |
| 1201 | 1136 | 59% | 2020-02-27 | Won |
| 970 | 1068 | 36% | 2020-02-18 | Lost |
| 1081 | 1044 | 55% | 2020-01-18 | Lost |
| 981 | 1217 | 20% | 2020-01-17 | Lost |
| 1081 | 1116 | 45% | 2020-01-17 | Won |
Attacking (15 wins) average ELOs: 1047.6 vs 1038.9 has a 51.26% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).