Long Day of Confusion
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 26 (15 on the archive and 11 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (British): 11
Defender wins (German (SS)): 15
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 981 | 912 | 60% | 2023-09-03 | Won |
| 1218 | 1245 | 46% | 2023-06-23 | Won |
| 1139 | 1139 | 50% | 2023-05-21 | Lost |
| 976 | 993 | 48% | 2023-01-15 | Lost |
| 1031 | 1022 | 51% | 2023-01-15 | Lost |
| 993 | 983 | 51% | 2023-01-07 | Lost |
| 1173 | 1173 | 50% | 2022-11-23 | Won |
| 1052 | 1083 | 46% | 2022-11-17 | Won |
| 967 | 1028 | 41% | 2022-03-23 | Lost |
| 960 | 1220 | 18% | 2022-01-01 | Lost |
| 1158 | 960 | 76% | 2021-10-08 | Lost |
| 984 | 989 | 49% | 2021-09-11 | Won |
| 1220 | 1208 | 52% | 2020-05-01 | Won |
| 1052 | 1082 | 46% | 2019-11-24 | Lost |
| 960 | 1131 | 27% | 2019-11-17 | Lost |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1057.6 vs 1077.9 has a 47.09% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).